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House prices have risen slightly so far this year, but hopes of a significant market uplift have been delayed by stubbornly high mortgage rates.
The latest data from the Land Registry shows an annual rise of 2.8%, with the average UK house price standing at £293,000 in August.
Here, Which? analyses what's happening to house prices according to other indices including Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove and Zoopla, and explains what might come next.
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The Land Registry's UK House Price Index is the most reliable barometer of what's happening to house prices, as it's based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for August.
The Land Registry says the average price of a property in the UK increased by 2.8% between August 2023 and 2024.
In the 12 months prior, house prices also increased by 2.8%.
There is a gap of £91,472 between the average price paid by first-time buyers and those who are already on the housing ladder in Great Britain (data is not available for Northern Ireland):
As well as Land Registry data, there are a handful of other property price indices that indicate what's going on with house prices.
The portal Rightmove provides the most up-to-date figures, but they're based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Zoopla's figures are based on sold prices, mortgage valuations and recently-agreed sales.
Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data, based on mortgage lending.
Currently, Halifax is recording the biggest year-on-year rise in prices, which it says is the strongest growth since November 2022. It says the higher annual growth reflects the impact of weaker prices a year ago.
| House price index | Month-on-month change | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Rightmove (October 2024) | +0.3% | +1% |
| Zoopla (October 2024) | 0.0% | +1% |
| Nationwide (October 2024) | +0.1% | +2.4% |
| Halifax (October 2024) | +0.2% | +3.9% |
Price changes vary from region-to-region and country-to-country.
Land Registry data shows almost all areas recorded small price rises in August, with only the South West of England registering a drop.
| Country/region | Property price | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | £310,000 | +1.6% | +2.3% |
| Scotland | £200,000 | +1.2% | +5.4% |
| Wales | £223,000 | +2.6% | +3.5% |
| Northern Ireland (Apr-Jun 2024) | £185,000 | +3.6% | +6.4% |
| East Midlands | £250,000 | +1.4% | +2.1% |
| East of England | £344,000 | +1% | +1.4% |
| London | £531,000 | +2.2% | +1.4% |
Source: UK House Price Index, 16 October 2024. Monthly data is not available for N. Ireland, figures are released each quarter. Average prices are rounded to the nearest thousand.
There was a marked drop-off in housing transactions last year, but there are now signs the market is picking up.
The most recent data from HMRC shows that an estimated 91,820 transactions went through in September, up 8% on 2023's figure.
The graph below shows how numbers have fluctuated over the past three years.
This depends on lots of factors, but broadly speaking, properties have been taking longer to sell due to high mortgage rates.
Zoopla says that one in five homes on the market have had their asking price cut by 5% or more. It found that homes with no asking price reduction sell within 28 days, while those with reductions take 73 days to sell.
This emphasises how we're still in a very price-sensitive market where sellers need to be realistic about the value of their home.
Rightmove says sellers are currently taking an average of 61 days to secure a buyer, compared to the 59 days recorded in September last year.
At the start of 2024, lenders and estate agents expected a fairly bleak year for house prices. However, recent forecasts have been more optimistic.
The estate agency Savills predicted a 3% drop in 2024 last November, but has upgraded its forecast to a 2.5% rise.
It says this is underpinned by an easing of mortgage rates and the slightly improved outlook for economic growth.
Knight Frank's updated forecast is similar, predicting a 3% rise in the UK as a whole, and a 2% rise in Greater London.
Zoopla says it expects prices to end the year 2.5% higher than 2023.
Mortgage rates remained high in the first half of 2024.
The Bank of England's decision to reduce the base rate on 1 August sparked hopes that rates will continue to drop over the next few months.
For the latest information, check out our guide on the best mortgage rates.
If you're coming up to the end of your fixed term, our story on what to do if you need to remortgage offers advice on your options.
Finally, if you're struggling to make your current repayments, see our guide on what to do if you can't pay your mortgage.
This story is regularly updated with the latest house price index figures and expert views. The last update was on 7 November 2024.
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