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It's been another tumultuous year for the property market, with falling house prices, soaring rents and high mortgage rates bringing pain to homeowners, landlords and tenants alike.
So what's the outlook for 2024?
Mortgage rates are likely to steal the headlines, and with the Renters Reform Bill, leasehold changes and the very real possibility of a general election looming too, things will be anything but dull.
Here, we make our predictions for house prices, mortgages and the property market in 2024.
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Fears of a house price crash in 2023 didn't come to pass, with average prices dropping by around 1%-2%.
This is the latest example of how the property market tends to remain robust against most economic challenges.
In a recent poll conducted by Finder, 55% of property and economic experts forecasted that house prices would drop by between 5% and 7.5% by autumn 2024.
Rightmove (-1%) and Halifax (-2% to -4%) have predicted smaller reductions, but HSBC says it 'no longer sees any further falls'.
The property market is very localised, so the truth is that any of these outcomes could happen in your area.
But, while falling house prices might make for dramatic headlines, it's important to put these predictions in context.
Land Registry data shows that even a drop of 7.5% in the UK average house price would only take it back to where it was two years ago, in January 2022.
Mortgage rates skyrocketed after the government's ill-fated Autumn Statement in late 2022, and the impact is still being felt.
Average rates have now dropped back to below 6% – a small crumb of comfort for borrowers after a difficult year.
Rates are likely to fall further in 2024, with signs indicating that inflation has passed its peak and that the Bank of England may eventually start lowering the base rate.
Unfortunately, though, the cost of borrowing is likely to drop much more slowly than it rose.
If you're looking to buy a home in 2024, think carefully about for how long you fix your mortgage rate. Five-year fixes are currently priced most competitively, but if rates fall more quickly than anticipated, you may end up locking yourself out of the biggest savings.
An estimated 1.5 million households will come to the end of their fixed terms in 2024, according to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
The impact on homeowners remortgaging will be reduced slightly by falling rates, but the cost increases remain significant.
The cheapest 60% LTV two-year deal is currently priced at around 4.7%, compared with 1.1% two years ago.
Unfortunately, these increases are unavoidable – even for the savviest homeowners.
To ensure you get the best deal you can, consider taking advice from a mortgage broker on your options.
If you're struggling to pay your mortgage, or you're worried about the impact that remortgaging might have on your finances, contact your lender at the earliest opportunity to discuss what support is available.
It's tough being a first-time buyer. After years of chasing rising property prices, people trying to get on the ladder now have to contend with sky-high mortgage rates.
FCA data shows the number of people taking out mortgage terms lasting 35 years or longer more than doubled between 2018 and 2022 and, with affordability squeezed, this trend is likely to continue.
40-year 'marathon' mortgages have theoretically been on the market for a long time, but very few deals were actually granted with these maximum terms.
That could change in 2024. We've already seen Halifax increase its maximum borrowing age from 70 to 75, and it's likely that other lenders will follow suit.
The property market has slowed recently, with sales down 17% year-on-year and properties now taking much longer to go under offer.
This means sellers going to market in 2024 will need to be realistic about how much they're likely to get – see our story on how to set the right asking price.
Rightmove says it expects a rise in the number of homes coming on to the market in 2024, and Halifax predicts a 'partial recovery' in sale volumes.
Three consecutive holds in the Bank of England base rate may provide increased confidence that mortgage rates won't spiral, encouraging buyers who'd been biding their time to make a move.
And if, as is speculated, the base rate begins to drop in the second half of the year, this could result in more mortgage applications and higher sales numbers.
The closure of the Help to Buy scheme in March was met with a mixed reaction, but it has left a big hole in the market.
Overall, 328,000 first-time buyers used Help to Buy to get on the property ladder between 2013 and 2023.
The First Homes scheme, originally announced in 2021, promised discounts of up to 30% for first-time buyers, but is yet to fully get off the ground.
With an election possibly on the horizon, it wouldn't be a surprise if a crowd-pleasing first-time buyer scheme appeared in 2024.
Whenever a Budget or Autumn Statement comes around, stamp duty is always one of the most-discussed topics – industry experts and politicians throw their weight behind the tax being reduced or abolished entirely.
In the past six years, we've seen surcharges introduced on additional properties, relief for first-time buyers, and a tax 'holiday' for homebuyers during the pandemic.
The latest rumblings are around stamp dut.y for older people who want to downsize.
Those in favour say a cut would free up bigger homes for families progressing up the ladder, while those against say the biggest barrier to downsizing isn't stamp duty, but rather a lack of desirable smaller properties for older people to move to.
The saga around leasehold reform has been going on for some time. Our investigation back in 2018 feels like an age ago, but we're still waiting to see concrete changes come into law.
The good news is that the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill has finally started its progression through Parliament.
The first reforms – which include banning the sale of almost all leasehold houses, introducing longer lease terms and making it cheaper to extend leases – should come into force in 2024. A consultation on capping existing ground rents is ongoing.
The cost of renting soared in 2023. Data from the estate agency Hamptons shows that monthly rents were 10.2% higher in November 2023 than in November 2022.
Unfortunately for struggling tenants, rents may be set to rise further. The agent Chestertons and property consultancy JLL are both forecasting a 5% rise in 2024.
See our guide on what to do if you can't pay your rent if you're concerned.
The long-awaited Renters Reform Bill is making its way through parliament, with hopes it could come into force by the end of 2024.
The headline change – a ban on no-fault evictions under Section 21 – has been delayed. The government says this is due to the need to put a new legal system in place.
However, measures on regulating rent increases, the right to keep pets, and a new ombudsman to resolve disputes are still being brought forward.
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