Daily macro update

US: Durable goods orders (Sept Prel.): -0.8% m/m vs -1.0% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from 0.0%)

• Ex transportation: 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)
• Durable goods orders fell less than expected but August growth was revised down.
• Encouragingly, ex-transport orders unexpectedly increased with August data revised slightly up.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct. F.): 70.5 vs 69 expected (prior: 70.1)

• Current conditions: 64.9 vs 62.6 expected (prior: 63.3)
• Expectations: 74.1 vs 73.0 expected (prior: 74.4)
• According to this poll, sentiment among consumers increased in October to a 6-month high.
• They become more upbeat about buying conditions, notably thanks to cheaper financing costs. In addition, expectations about incomes rose to the highest level since June and respondents were more optimistic about the job market.
• This suggests that consumer spending is likely to remain resilient by year-end.

Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 3.2% y/y vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Private sector credit growth increased from 1.5% y/y to 1.6% in September, with household loans up 0.1pp to 0.7% y/y and loans to non-financial corporate (NFC) up 0.3pp to +1.1% y/y.
• However, sequential momentum in credit growth remained roughly flat.
• Overall, a positive report, which is consistent with the recent ECB bank lending survey.

Germany: IFO (Oct.): 86.5 vs 85.6 expected (prior: 85.4)

• Current assessment: 85.7 vs 84.4 expected (prior: 84.4)
• Expectations: 87.3 vs 86.9 expected (prior: 86.3)
• Echoing yesterday’s German PMI, the headline IFO inched higher, driven almost equally by increases in business expectations and current conditions.
• The improvement in sentiment was most significant in the services sector where the net balance of positive vs negative assessments is now back in positive territory.
• The IFO press release mentioned that capacity utilization fell further in manufacturing and that low order inflows remain a problem, but stated that "the German economy stopped the decline for the time being".

France: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 94 vs 95 expected (prior: 95)

• First deterioration since April, with households less optimistic about future living standards and more concerns about unemployment.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 85.8 vs 87.0 expected (prior: 86.7)

• Sentiment in the manufacturing sector continued to trend downward to reach the lowest level since late 2020.
• The gauge on services also declined from September.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 97.4 vs 98.5 expected (prior: 98.3)

• Consumers became less optimistic about the economic situation.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -21 vs -20 expected (prior: -20)

• Consumer confidence edged lower in October despite rising real wages. Political uncertainty and worries about the upcoming budget could be the explaining factor.

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.19): 227k vs 242k expected (prior: 242k revised from 241k)

• Continuing claims: 1897 k after 1869 k the prior week.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 47.8 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 47.3)

• Business sentiment has regained from the prior month, but index remained below 50.
• Output has improved over the month as well as employment, but new orders remained weak.

US: Services PMI (Oct.): 55.3 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.2)

• Sentiment has marginally increased from the prior month; views on new business have improved on domestic demand while exports have weakened. Prices have shown less pressure.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 45.9 vs 45.1 expected (prior: 45)

• Preliminary business confidence has regained from the prior month as new orders have improved (index from 42.2 to 44.1).
• First estimates have pointed to diverging trend between Germany (index regaining from 40.6 prior month to 42.6) while it has marginally decreased in France (from 44.6 to 44.5) on weaker new orders.
• Employment has decreased sharply, and prices have eased. Exports remained depressed.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Oct.): 51.2 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.4)

• Business sentiment has eroded in the service sector, but the index remained above the 50 level.
• As seen in manufacturing, sentiment has improved in Germany (index up from 50.6 prior month to 51.4), while it has decreased in France (from 49.6 to 48.3).
• Employment remained stable but prices remained on the rise.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 50.3 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.5)

• First estimates have pointed to loss in momentum in industry; new orders index has passed below the 50 level over the month (from 51.7 the prior month to 48.9). Exports were weak.
• Business sentiment is impacted by tensions in global activity (US elections, Middle East) and ahead of the 2025 budget in the UK.

UK: PMI Services (Oct.): 51.8 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Sentiment has decreased in services, but new orders remained at high levels (index at 51.4 after 54.4 the prior month).
• Employment has been reduced, while prices remained on the rise.

France: Business confidence (Oct.): 97 vs 98 expected (prior: 98)

• In manufacturing, sentiment has decreased from 99 tp 92; opinions have deteriorated on production and sharply on total orders.
• Separately, index for services has increased 99.2 the prior month to 100.8; the improvement came from higher expected future demand and higher future prices while views on employment have deteriorated.

US: Existing home sales (Sept.): 3.84M vs 3.88M expected (prior: 3.88M revised from 3.86M)

• Sales have weakened over the month; sales of single-family houses were down just by 0.6% m/m while those of condominiums declined by 5.1% m/m.
• Inventories have regained, notably for condominiums.
• Average prices settled at 3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month; changes were more pronounced for condos, which average prices declined from 3.5% y/y the prior month to 2.2% y/y, while prices of single-family houses remained up by 3% y/y.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5% as expected (prior: 5%)

• Unemployed has decreased by 2.7% m/m over the month but the unemployment ratio remained stable.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 80.6 (prior: 78.2)

• After a fall in Q3-24, consumer confidence has rebounded; sentiment has increased about financial situation, future economy, and higher willingness to buy durable goods.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Oct.): -14 vs -17 expected (prior: -21)

• The headline index rose to a 4-month high, which suggests a slower pace of contraction in the Richmond area's manufacturing sector.
• This is in line with the Philly Fed index (which is in expansion territory) but against the drop in the Empire manufacturing index, which overall argues for a roughly stable ISM manufacturing index (slightly in contraction territory).