Democrats See a Glimmer of Hope Over Supreme Court Fight in Arizona’s Senate Race

TUCSON, Ariz. — Democrats have almost no power to stop a pre-election vote on President Trump’s nominee to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, but they see a glimmer of hope in a bank-shot scenario if they capture a Senate seat in Arizona in the November election.

If Mark Kelly, the Democratic nominee, wins, he could be seated in the Senate as early as Nov. 30, six weeks before the other winners are sworn in, according to elections experts from both parties. Mr. Kelly currently leads Senator Martha McSally, a Republican, in the polls.

There are many ifs: If the Arizona results can be rapidly certified, and if Senate Republicans hold a confirmation vote in the postelection lame-duck session and if three Republicans defect, Mr. Kelly could cast the deciding vote to defeat Mr. Trump’s as-yet unnamed pick to the high court.

Such a scenario is possible (if not probable) because Ms. McSally, who was sworn in in 2019, was appointed, not elected. The Arizona Senate race this year is a special election, and under state law the winner can be seated pending a final review of the election results, known as a canvass, completed at the end of November.

“I think it’s clear that should Mr. Kelly win that seat, he would take office upon the canvass,” said Timothy La Sota, the former general counsel for the Arizona Republican Party, who has litigated cases in special elections.

“I think there will be some legal wrangling if it’s close,” he added. “But if it’s not close, there won’t be. There has to be a close race that’s important enough for people to fight over.”