Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Correspondence
  • Published:

Estimating the total effect of anthropogenic climate change on human health and wellbeing

Nature Medicine volume 30, pages 2392–2393 (2024)Cite this article

Subjects

In a recent World View in Nature Medicine, Carlson1 reinforces the value of estimating the global human health burden of anthropogenic climate change and offers a stinging critique of the underinvestment in climate change and health research. Anthropogenic climate change has been altering weather patterns and sea level rise for several decades2. Policymakers urgently need robust and comprehensive methods to quantify the current and historical human health burden of anthropogenic climate change to inform adaptation and mitigation policies.

Carlson1 estimated the cumulative burden of climate change from 2000 to today based on a previous study by McMichael et al.3. The research by McMichael et al.3 quantified associations between weather variables and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (due to high ambient temperatures), floods, diarrheal diseases and malaria. Using 1961–1990 as the climate baseline, the authors projected mortality in 2000 and 2030. The modeled estimate for the year 2000 was 166,000 deaths; this is the number used by Carlson1. McMichael et al.3 assumed that major modifiers of the associations between weather variables and mortality, such as historic population change and aging, were sufficiently incorporated into the underlying scenarios. The authors3 noted that their estimates came with considerable uncertainties that could be reduced by longitudinal studies of the health effects of climatic and non-climatic variables, including their interactions; disaggregating the contributions of demographic change and population health improvement; improving weather/climate and health models; and model validation. It is doubtful that McMichael himself would have supported the use of the estimate of 166,000 deaths as the basis for extrapolation, as he was aware of the limitations of the data and methods.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on SpringerLink
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

References

  1. Carlson, C. J. Nat. Med. 30, 622 (2024).

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Seneviratne, S. I. et al. in Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (eds. Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 1513–1766 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

  3. McMichael, A. J. et al. (eds.) https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/42742 (World Health Organization, 2003).

  4. NASA Global Temperature. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ (accessed 8 May 2024).

  5. Cissé, G. R. et al. in Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 1041–1170 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2022).

  6. Hales, S. et al. (eds.) https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/134014 (World Health Organization, 2014).

  7. Stone, D. et al. Climatic Change 121, 381–395 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Mitchell, D. et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074006 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C. & Woodward, A. Environ. Health Perspect. 125, 085004 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Kristie L. Ebi & Jeremy J. Hess

  2. University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Kathryn Bowen

  3. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

    Andy Haines & R. Sari Kovats

  4. University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    Alistair Woodward

Authors
  1. Kristie L. Ebi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kathryn Bowen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Andy Haines
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jeremy J. Hess
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. R. Sari Kovats
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Alistair Woodward
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kristie L. Ebi.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ebi, K.L., Bowen, K., Haines, A. et al. Estimating the total effect of anthropogenic climate change on human health and wellbeing. Nat Med 30, 2392–2393 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03051-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03051-1

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing