Assembly Elections 2024

A few months after the Lok Sabha polls, the political temperature in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir is at its peak, with both assemblies voting in September and October. These elections are crucial as the results will reflect the electoral mood after the 2024 general elections, which were declared in June. Both regions have witnessed high-decibel campaigning, and speculation surrounding the exit polls has already sparked debates across political and media circles.

This article will explore the upcoming assembly elections, the current political scenario in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir, the exit poll trends, and what to expect on results day.

The results of both the assembly elections will be declared on October 8. The exit polls will start coming in after the Haryana polling is over on October 5.

1. The Importance of the 2024 Assembly Elections

The assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir hold significant importance in shaping the future political landscape of India. Both regions are politically and strategically critical due to their unique geographic and demographic characteristics.

Haryana: A northern state bordering the national capital, Haryana has been a political battleground for decades. Known for its robust agricultural economy and the role it plays in India’s industrial belt, Haryana’s election outcome could have an impact at the national level.

Jammu & Kashmir: After the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which granted special status to Jammu & Kashmir, the political dynamics in the region have changed considerably. The elections in Jammu & Kashmir mark the first full-fledged assembly election in J&K after its transition to a Union Territory and the abrogation of its special status.

2. Current Political Scenario in Haryana

Political Landscape

Haryana, currently led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has faced its share of political challenges in recent years. The BJP-Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) alliance broke a few months ahead of the polls. Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced by Nayab Singh Saini as the Chief Minister. The state has faced issues such as farmer protests against the now-repealed farm laws, unemployment, and regional disparities, all of which are likely to shape the narrative of the upcoming elections.

The opposition, primarily led by the Congress and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), is expected to capitalize on these issues. The Congress, rejuvenated under new leadership, has been actively campaigning, with a strong emphasis on social justice, job creation, and reversing the impact of the agricultural crisis.

Key Issues in Haryana

Agriculture and Farmer Protests: Agriculture is the backbone of Haryana’s economy, and the farmer protests over the farm laws have left a lasting impression on the political landscape. Although the laws were repealed, discontent among the rural population remains.

Employment: With a high unemployment rate, particularly among the youth, job creation is expected to be a central issue in the election campaigns.

Law and Order: Haryana has experienced instances of violence and unrest in recent years, which may also influence voters’ sentiments.

Main Political Players in Haryana

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini’s government is seeking re-election, and the party is banking on its developmental projects and governance track record. However, the BJP faces challenges due to anti-incumbency, infighting, and its handling of farmer protests.

Indian National Lok Dal (INLD): A regional force that has lost ground in recent years, INLD is looking to regain its political foothold, especially among Jat voters. They will focus on regional identity and agrarian issues.

Congress: The Congress, under new leadership, has been trying to consolidate its base in the state. It is focusing on economic issues, youth employment, and the aftermath of the farm laws to win the rural vote.

Jannayak Janta Party (JJP): The JJP has significant influence in rural Haryana. However, its partnership with the BJP has cost it some support among farmers. It parted ways with the BJP a few months before the polls.

3. Current Political Scenario in Jammu & Kashmir

Political Landscape

The political environment in Jammu & Kashmir is starkly different from that of Haryana. After the abrogation of Article 370, the region was bifurcated into two Union Territories: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. Since then, political parties have had to navigate the new landscape.

The National Conference (NC) and Congress contested the elections in an alliance. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) continues to be a significant player. On the other hand, the BJP aggressively campaigned to establish its footprint in the region, particularly in Jammu.

Key Issues in Jammu & Kashmir

Restoration of Statehood: The restoration of Jammu & Kashmir’s statehood remains a dominant issue in the political discourse. While the BJP maintains that development and security are its top priorities, opposition parties have vowed to fight for the return of statehood and the revival of Jammu & Kashmir’s special status.

Security and Militancy: Security remains a paramount concern, especially in the Kashmir Valley. The recent surge in militancy-related incidents is expected to influence voter sentiment.

Development and Infrastructure: Since the abrogation of Article 370, the region has seen increased infrastructural development, with investments in roadways, healthcare, and tourism. The BJP is expected to highlight these achievements in its campaign.

Main Political Players in Jammu & Kashmir

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The BJP is aiming to secure a majority in Jammu while making inroads into Kashmir. It plans to focus on its development agenda, the abrogation of Article 370, and security measures to gain votes.

National Conference (NC): Led by Farooq Abdullah, the NC remains a dominant force in the Valley. It has consistently opposed the abrogation of Article 370 and is expected to rally around the demand for statehood restoration.

People’s Democratic Party (PDP): Once a formidable player, the PDP has seen its influence wane after the abrogation of Article 370. However, it continues to advocate for dialogue with Pakistan and autonomy for Jammu & Kashmir.

Congress: The Congress aims to regain its relevance in Jammu & Kashmir politics by focusing on secularism, development, and restoring statehood.

4. Exit Poll Trends for Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir

Exit polls are an essential part of the electoral process, providing early insights into how the public is likely to vote. Although exit polls are not always accurate, they indicate the political mood in the region.

The exit polls will start coming in after the elections are over in Haryana on October 5.

5. What to Expect on Results Day

The results of the assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir will be closely watched by political observers and citizens alike. In Haryana, the outcome could indicate the future direction of agrarian politics in India, especially after the farmer protests. In Jammu & Kashmir, the election results will be a referendum on the abrogation of Article 370 and the governance model that followed.

Scenarios for Haryana

BJP Retains Power: If the BJP manages to retain power, it could be seen as a validation of its development-focused governance. However, the margin of victory will be crucial, as a reduced mandate may force the BJP to rethink its policies, particularly on agriculture.

Congress Makes Gains: If the Congress performs well and forms a government, it would mark a significant comeback for the party in a state where it has struggled in recent years. A victory here could set the tone for its performance in the 2024 general elections.

Scenarios for Jammu & Kashmir

BJP Gains in Jammu, Regional Parties Hold Kashmir: A likely scenario is one where the BJP wins in Jammu while regional parties dominate the Kashmir Valley. This would result in a fractured mandate, leading to complex coalition-building efforts.

Restoration of Statehood Becomes Central: Regardless of the outcome, the demand for restoring Jammu & Kashmir’s statehood is expected to remain a critical issue. How political parties address this in the aftermath of the elections will shape the region’s political future.

Conclusion

The assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir are set to be highly contested, with far-reaching implications for both regions and the nation. Exit polls suggest close contests, but the final results will depend on voter turnout, last-minute campaigning, and key issues like agriculture, unemployment, and security.