Carsten Brockhaus

The conflict in the Middle East is changing international trade routes at sea. The number of container ships passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal fell again in February compared to January. At the same time, the number of ships around the Cape of Good Hope off Africa tripled. However, no greater negative consequences are to be expected for the global economy as a whole or for the German economy in particular, as both freight rates to Europe and the volume of goods arriving in the North Sea are stabilizing. This is according to the latest update of the Kiel Trade Indicator. The algorithm evaluates the global position data of container ships in real time.

The amount of freight transported through the Red Sea has once again decreased in January. In December, it had plummeted by over half due to attacks by the Houthi rebels. Currently, over 80 percent fewer containers are passing through the sea route and the Suez Canal than would normally be expected. This also has consequences for German ports like Hamburg and Bremerhaven, where the number of incoming ships has decreased by 25 percent. This information is derived from the latest update of the Kiel Trade Indicator for January 2024. The algorithm analyzes real-time position data of container ships in 500 ports and 100 sea regions worldwide.

The latest update of the Kiel Trade Indicator for the month of December 2023 shows the consequences of the attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea. The volume of containers transported there plummeted by more than half and is currently almost 70 percent below the volume that would usually be expected. As a result, freight costs and transportation time in goods traffic between East Asia and Europe have risen and imports and exports from Germany and the EU are in some cases significantly lower than in the previous month of November 2023 (price and seasonally adjusted).