About SAGE and COVID-19
Published 12 October 2022
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Meetings
This activation of SAGE has met over 100 times.
An ‘activation’ is a series of SAGE meetings dealing with the same emergency or event.
The frequency with which SAGE and its sub-groups meet changes throughout the course of the pandemic and is determined by a combination of government demand for science advice and the emergence of new evidence.
Participants
This activation of SAGE is co-chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and the Chief Medical Officer, Professor Sir Chris Whitty.
SAGE meetings are attended by experts from within government, academia, and industry. There is no formal or standing membership; the participants in attendance will depend on each meeting’s agenda and the specific issues under consideration.
This activation of SAGE has drawn on expertise from across the scientific spectrum including, but not limited to:
- epidemiologists
- clinicians
- public health experts
- immunologists
- virologists
- engineers
- environmental scientists
- data scientists
- mathematical modellers and statisticians
- geneticists
- behavioural and social scientists
View the full list of participants of SAGE and related sub-groups.
Expert groups
This activation of SAGE is supported by several subject-specific sub-groups and receives evidence and input from a variety of additional expert groups or organisations as necessary.
View the full list of participants of SAGE and related sub-groups.
Frequently asked questions about SAGE and COVID-19
What topics does SAGE cover?
This activation of SAGE advises on a wide range of science topics relevant to the pandemic response. The topics considered at SAGE are agreed by the chairs based on the situation and the science advice needs of the Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms (COBR) and central government decision makers. SAGE does not provide economic or clinical advice which is provided to government via other advisory routes.
Can I read what has happened at SAGE COVID-19 meetings?
Early in the pandemic, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser made a commitment to release all scientific advice provided by SAGE. This evidence is in the form of scientific papers and the minutes of SAGE meetings.
Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19)
Are participants independent?
Participants in this activation of SAGE are experts from a broad range of disciplines from both inside and outside government. Experts from outside government are brought in to provide insight and expertise, as well as challenge and debate. Experts inside of government who observe and participate include chief scientific advisers and members of scientific advisory groups across departments.
What evidence do participants use?
Participants draw on a wide range of evidence from multiple sources, both domestic and international. This includes published academic literature as well as data and evidence from the NHS, UK Health Security Agency (formerly Public Health England) and other relevant sources such as the COVID-19 Genomic UK Consortium and the National Core Studies.
What is the SAGE secretariat?
The SAGE secretariat is a team of civil servants in the Government Office for Science that supports SAGE. During COVID-19, the secretariat has included scientists on secondment from academia, civil servants with scientific training, and civil servants experienced in emergency response and governance and the delivery of expert advisory groups.
Does the government have to listen to SAGE’s advice?
The government is not obliged to act upon advice from SAGE. SAGE is one part of the advice the government considers before adopting new policies and interventions during an emergency.
Explainer material about SAGE COVID-19
Videos
About the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
Transcript - About SAGE transcript
Epidemic modelling during COVID-19
Transcript - Epidemic modelling during COVID-19
Articles
- The pandemic taught us that good ventilation is vital. Authored by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Peter Guthrie. June 2022.
- It’s not true COVID-19 modellers look only at worst outcomes. Authored by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance. December 2021.
- Government Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance on the new variant of COVID-19 in the UK. Authored by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance. January 2021.
- Chief Scientific Adviser’s Sunday Telegraph article. Authored by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance. May 2022.
- It’s a national effort to win coronavirus fight, we all have crucial part to play. Authored by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance. March 2020.
Guidance
- Epidemiological modelling frequently asked questions. Published by SAGE. December 2021.
- Introduction to epidemiological modelling. Published by SAGE. October 2021.
Video transcripts
About the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
What is SAGE?
SAGE is the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.
It’s called when government has a difficult emergency problem or crisis, which requires complex science advice to come together in order to inform policy makers.
It’s not a decision-making body. It’s not a standing body. It’s a body that comes together with different disciplines to give advice as required by government.
What did SAGE do during the pandemic?
For this emergency, SAGE was called in January 2020, and it brought together specialists from different disciplines.
We set up sub groups in behavioural science, in mathematical modelling, in transmission of the virus and expertise on virology, and tried to bring together that complicated advice from hundreds and hundreds of scientists around the UK to be able to deliver clear, consistent, coherent advice to government.
Who is in SAGE?
SAGE doesn’t have standing members, it has participants who join for a particular emergency.
And in this case, it involved people from epidemiology, virology, public health, experts in transmission of virus in different environments, ethicists, other people who came together to try to give a coherent view of this.
And they’re all people with busy day jobs. And I want to thank them for the enormous work they put in over the period of this pandemic.
Does SAGE tell the government what to do?
In an emergency, ministers need to make decisions and they get advice on all sorts of different aspects: economics, politics and other things.
Our job in SAGE is to make sure they get the best scientific evidence they can, presented in a way that’s understandable by ministers.
Publish it when we can, which we did fully in this emergency, and allow ministers then to use that to make the decisions they have to make.
Epidemic modelling during COVID-19
What are epidemic models?
Epidemic models are a way to represent how infectious disease spreads through a population.
In their simplest form, they can be a set of instructions. For example, if you have this many cases this week, these models can tell you how many cases there will be next week.
During COVID-19, of course, a lot of epidemic models were used.
They became quite complex, so they were written as computer code, and the outputs were simulations.
How are models made?
So epidemic models are made using our best understanding we have at the time of both the current situation and the science.
A range of assumptions will go into these models, for example how people are currently mixing.
Sometimes we’ll put things into the models that are things that haven’t happened yet, but they’re things we want to explore.
For example, suppose schools are currently closed, and we want to see what would happen if they open.
And what comes out of the epidemic modelling is a range of simulations giving an idea of the things that could happen.
Sometimes the models we’re using will be very complex to capture as much as possible, but sometimes the models will be quite simple, trying to get a broad brush picture of what’s happening. To zoom out.
Are models always right?
Models aren’t necessarily right or wrong, they’re there to be useful.
There’s a number of reasons why the output of models isn’t exactly what happens.
And of course, fundamentally, it’s because we’re simulating things that are in the future and haven’t happened yet.
There will be some things that will change that we weren’t expecting, for example, people’s behaviour can be slightly different.
Epidemic modelling is a bit like weather forecasting. For the short term, it gives a very good reflection of reality, but the further you go into the future, the less certain it is.
What does government use models for?
The modelling and insights from the modelling work were presented to decision makers through SAGE, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.
These models helped us to understand where we were in the pandemic, what would happen in the coming weeks, and they allowed us to explore what would be the effects if particular decisions were made.