library(ggplot2)

load('output/result-model8-1.RData')

load('output/result-model8-2.RData')

load('output/result-model8-3.RData')

ms1 <- rstan::extract(fit1)

ms2 <- rstan::extract(fit2)

ms3 <- rstan::extract(fit3)

K <- 4

qua <- apply(ms2$a, 2, quantile, prob = c(0.025, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.975))

d_qua1 <- data.frame(1:K - 0.1, '8-2', t(qua))

colnames(d_qua1) <- c('KID', 'Model', 'p2.5', 'p25', 'p50', 'p75', 'p97.5')

qua <- apply(ms3$a, 2, quantile, prob = c(0.025, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.975))

d_qua2 <- data.frame(1:K + 0.1, '8-3', t(qua))

colnames(d_qua2) <- c('KID', 'Model', 'p2.5', 'p25', 'p50', 'p75', 'p97.5')

d_qua <- rbind(d_qua1, d_qua2)

p <- ggplot(data = d_qua, aes(x = KID, y = p50, ymin = p2.5, ymax = p97.5, shape = Model, linetype = Model, fill = Model))

p <- p +

theme_bw(base_size = 18) +

theme(legend.key.height = grid::unit(2.5, 'line'))

p <- p + geom_pointrange(size = 0.6)

p <- p + geom_hline(yintercept = median(ms1$a), color = 'black', alpha = 0.3, linetype = 'solid', size = 1.2)

p <- p + scale_shape_manual(values = c(21, 21))

p <- p + scale_linetype_manual(values = c('31', 'solid'))

p <- p + scale_fill_manual(values = c('white', 'black'))

p <- p + labs(y = 'a')

ggsave(file = 'output/fig8-4-left.png', plot = p, dpi = 300, w = 4, h = 3)