Tropical disturbance 96L development chances fade as Saharan dust takes hold

Environmental conditions earlier in the week looked conducive for additional development of this system, but the system failed to take advantage. Now, Saharan dust and drier air in the vicinity has drastically cut 96L's chances for development.

The tropics have been active this week in the Atlantic, with Hurricane Beryl plowing through the Caribbean Sea after its Category 4 landfall in the Windward Islands and another tropical disturbance being monitored for development several hundred miles behind it.

HURRICANE BERYL REGAINS CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH AS LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, STORM SURGE SET TO BLAST CARIBBEAN

The tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic Basin.
(FOX Weather)


 

Invest 96L in central tropical Atlantic

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure approaching the Windward Islands Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has dubbed this system Invest 96L, which is simply a naming convention used by the NHC to identify areas it is investigating for possible development within the next several days.

Environmental conditions earlier in the week looked conducive for additional development of this system, but the system failed to take advantage. Now, Saharan dust and drier air in the vicinity has drastically cut 96L's chances for development to around 10-20% as of Wednesday. 

The system is moving westward at 15-20 mph and while it is no longer expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm, it is forecast to bring heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles that just took the brunt of Hurricane Beryl.

"The tough thing is for the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands, we’re talking about heavy rain moving into an area that was just ripped apart.  And that’s really tough," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin

Merwin said there is enough wind shear in place and dry air and that is going to prevent 96L from getting its act together.

"So the good news is, we’re not expecting 96L to turn into anything," Merwin continued. "The bad news is it does still mean we have heavy rain and tropical rain into areas that have just been decimated… so that’s tough scenario — any type of weather moving into these areas is bad news."

Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for Barbadoes for an additional 1-3 inches of rain Wednesday. 96L could follow suit drenching Jamaica just days after that island deals with Beryl. 

The outlook for Invest 96L.
(FOX Weather)


 

Atlantic Basin climatology

The 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin is still ahead of schedule compared to a typical year.

According to NHC historical data, the fourth named storm typically forms by Aug. 15 and the second hurricane forms by Aug. 26.

WHY THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS KNOWN AS THE 'HURRICANE GRAVEYARD'

During an average season, 14 named storms form, with seven that strengthen into hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season spans approximately 26 weeks and lasts through Nov. 30.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.

Loading...