Red Sox CF Jarren Duran Builds His Game Around His Above Average Speed

One thing is for sure - watching Red Sox’ CF Jarren Duran play is a whole lot of fun. Nothing he does is boring - every batted ball could be a hit, every single could be a double, every double could be a triple or even more. The triple, in fact, has become an anachronism in today’s game, with mostly uniform ballparks and a general lack of risk-taking on the part of clubs. Duran leads the majors with 10 three-baggers at the All Star break (he’s also setting the pace in doubles with 27).

While I love to watch guys like Duran, the Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll and the Phillies’ Trea Turner play, my batted ball-based position player evaluation methods tend to be ambivalent about such players. If you want to be able to bank upon a player’s production moving forward, it sure does help if he hits the ball hard - if too much of a player’s success is based upon what I call the “speed premium”, a player’s offensive level can drop off suddenly for any number of reasons.

A natural drop in foot speed due to aging, nagging minor injuries or any number of issues can cause a speed premium to die overnight. Case in point, Corbin Carroll, 2024. All of a sudden he’s exploring launch angles at the two poles, hitting weak pop ups and rolled-over pull-side ground balls, batted balls that even the fastest of wheels can’t exploit. What does Jarren Duran’s batted ball profile bode for his future? Is he a budding star, or just a really fun, average range player?

First of all, Duran had a healthy speed premium in 2023. He “should have” hit .264-.314-.404 based on his exit speed/launch angle profile, for a 99 “Tru” Production+, well below his 120 wRC+. His actual, or Unadjusted Contact Score was better than his adjusted mark across all batted ball types - 140 vs. 92 on fly balls, 124 vs. 113 on line drives, 167 vs. 118 on ground balls and 147 vs. 115 overall. The difference is mostly due to his speed premium, but also due to Fenway Park effects (particularly on fly balls), as well as random chance.

Fast forward to the 2024 All Star break, (excepting Sunday’s game) and his results are eerily similar. He “should be” hitting .258-.316-.419, for a 108 “Tru” Production+, below his 120 wRC+. His actual, or Unadjusted Contact Score is better than his adjusted mark across most batted ball types - 157 vs. 116 on fly balls, 117 vs. 103 on line drives, while he is underperforming on grounders (103 vs. 122). Overall, his 138 Unadjusted Contact Score is well above his adjusted 116 mark. His K/BB profile, while slightly improved in 2024, is still roughly in the league average range.

Offensively, Jarren Duran is who he is, basically an average range offensive player whose speed premium and home park is allowing his numbers to “play up” a bit.

So, no, I don’t see him as a present or even a future star. But is he a valuable player? You bet.

He’s playing solid defense at a premium position. He’s a fairly prolific and highly efficient basestealer, with a career 87.3% success rate. And perhaps most importantly, he’s doing all of this on a modest 2024 salary of $760,000. He isn’t arbitration-eligible for the first time until next season, and doesn’t become a free agent until 2028. There is a copious amount of excess value above contract here.

His average fly ball exit speed has surged from 88.1 to 91.7 mph this season. He hits liners measurably harder than average, and has raised his average grounder exit speed from 85.3 to 88.3 mph this season. He doesn’t have an excessive pulling problem on the ground. None of these trends suggest a pending major step up in class, but they all should age reasonably well. His average launch angle of 9.0 degrees has room to grow, and in Fenway that invites upside. Yes, the speed will ebb, but could be offset with improved pop.

So hold onto those Jarren Duran shares. While not a likely future mega-star, he should remain a productive MLB regular and valuable all-around player throughout his arbitration years. He’s a key part of the Sox’ new core.