Welcome
Cedefop Skill forecast offers quantitative projections of future trends in employment by sector of economic activity and occupational group. Future trends on the level of education of the population and the labour force are also estimated. Cedefop Skills forecast use harmonised international data and a common methodological approach with the aim to offer cross-country comparisons about employment trends in sectors, occupations, and qualifications. The forecasts and the methodologies applied are validated by a group of national experts. Nevertheless, it is not the purpose to substitute national forecasts, which often utilise more detailed methodologies and data, while they also incorporate in-depth knowledge of the labour market of the country.
The latest round of the forecast covers the period up to 2035. The forecast takes account of global economic developments up to Spring 2022. The short-term GDP projections are in line with Ameco’s Spring 2022 Economic Forecast, while the long-term projections are in line with the GDP projections used in the Europop 2019 population projections, as detailed in the 2021 Ageing Report. Since the 2021 Ageing Report does not contain assumptions about the European Green Deal, the long-term GDP projections have been adjusted to reflect the implementation of parts of the Green Deal, based on information from the European Commission Fit-For-55 Impact Assessment. For full details please see our Technical Report.
More about the Skill Forecast you can find in the dedicated project page. Skillsnet Forecast Members can access the detailed data tool, and the full dataset (Login required). If you are not a Skillsnet Forecast Member, login to your account and apply for the Skillsnet Forecast Member role. If you do not have an Cedefop website account yet, please register first.
The detailed estimates are subject to possibly large and uncertain margins of error. They should not be taken literally but suggestive of indicative trends and patterns. As a rough rule of thumb, any cell containing fewer than 10,000 people should be regarded with caution.
Labour force
This section presents estimates of future labour force growth by country. These are presented in terms of both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. It is possible to filter by gender or age. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short and the medium term. Additional graphs show the future EU trends by gender and age.
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Employment
This section presents estimates of future employment growth by country. These are presented in terms of both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. It is possible to filter by sector of economic activity or occupation but not both simultaneously. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is providing a comparative view of future trends of employment in sectors and occupations across countries.
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Job openings
This section presents estimates of future total job openings by country and occupation. These include job openings to occur in the future due to both expansion of employment and the need to replace existing workforce leaving the occupation for various reasons, with retirement being the most common. It is possible to filter by occupation and/or country. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is providing a comparative view of job openings across occupations and countries.
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Country
This section presents a country summary of estimates for future employment, future total job openings and future labour force growth. In terms of future employment, the top 10 sectors and occupations are presented for both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. The occupations with the highest replacement demand and total job openings are presented in absolute numbers. Regarding future labour force growth, its percentage growth by age group, gender and qualification is available. It is possible to filter by country. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of this section is to provide an overall view on each country’s growth in employment, job openings and labour force.
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Occupation
This section presents estimates for future employment, future job openings and replacement needs for a specific occupation. The future employment estimates are presented in both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. Additional graphs present the top 10 sectors of employment and the employment by qualification in absolute numbers for the selected occupation. Regarding future job openings and replacement needs, their change in absolute numbers is depicted. It is possible to filter by a single occupation and a single country and compare its estimates with other countries. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is to provide a comparative view of future trends of employment in an occupation between countries.
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Sector
This section presents estimates for future employment for a specific sector. These are presented for both percentage growth and change in absolute numbers. Additional graphs present the top 10 occupations of employment and the employment by qualification in absolute numbers for the selected sector. It is possible to filter by a single sector and a single country and compare its estimates with other countries. Different start and end year points are offered as options to view both the short and the medium term. The purpose of the graphs below is to provide a comparative view of future trends of employment in a sector between countries.