Kindle
$19.24
Available instantly
Audiobook
$0.00
for membership
Hardcover
$27.46
Audio CD
$45.95
$27.46 with 22 percent savings
List Price: $35.00

The List Price is the suggested retail price of a new product as provided by a manufacturer, supplier, or seller. Except for books, Amazon will display a List Price if the product was purchased by customers on Amazon or offered by other retailers at or above the List Price in at least the past 90 days. List prices may not necessarily reflect the product's prevailing market price.
Learn more
FREE International Returns
No Import Charges & $7.30 Shipping to Canada Details

Shipping & Fee Details

Price $27.46
AmazonGlobal Shipping $7.30
Estimated Import Charges $0.00
Total $34.76

Delivery Sunday, August 25. Order within 14 hrs 28 mins
In Stock
$$27.46 () Includes selected options. Includes initial monthly payment and selected options. Details
Price
Subtotal
$$27.46
Subtotal
Initial payment breakdown
Shipping cost, delivery date, and order total (including tax) shown at checkout.
Ships from
Amazon.com
Ships from
Amazon.com
Sold by
Amazon.com
Sold by
Amazon.com
Returns
30-day refund/replacement
30-day refund/replacement
This item can be returned in its original condition for a full refund or replacement within 30 days of receipt.
Read full return policy
Returns
30-day refund/replacement
This item can be returned in its original condition for a full refund or replacement within 30 days of receipt.
Read full return policy
Payment
Secure transaction
Your transaction is secure
We work hard to protect your security and privacy. Our payment security system encrypts your information during transmission. We don’t share your credit card details with third-party sellers, and we don’t sell your information to others. Learn more
Payment
Secure transaction
We work hard to protect your security and privacy. Our payment security system encrypts your information during transmission. We don’t share your credit card details with third-party sellers, and we don’t sell your information to others. Learn more
Added to

Sorry, there was a problem.

There was an error retrieving your Wish Lists. Please try again.

Sorry, there was a problem.

List unavailable.
Kindle app logo image

Download the free Kindle app and start reading Kindle books instantly on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.

Read instantly on your browser with Kindle for Web.

Using your mobile phone camera - scan the code below and download the Kindle app.

QR code to download the Kindle App

Follow the authors

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Follow
Paul Swartz
Follow
Something went wrong. Please try your request again later.

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk Hardcover – July 9, 2024

by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak (Author), Paul Swartz (Author)
4.9 4.9 out of 5 stars 19 ratings
See all formats and editions
{"desktop_buybox_group_1":[{"displayPrice":"$27.46","priceAmount":27.46,"currencySymbol":"$","integerValue":"27","decimalSeparator":".","fractionalValue":"46","symbolPosition":"left","hasSpace":false,"showFractionalPartIfEmpty":true,"offerListingId":"iwxxiJ8%2FCyBSRoZKXciTGZU1Cgk22KdwDPPv75UJI68GaIj7DXyzJAIm621n6YLbBrgBAppFf7fvR7OD1FzVOICUuE13yTzFhzED4xNSBhvhogE0x1yOqplUcx0eiIWc%2FpH7T6jPiFWv9rmbvsfy9Q%3D%3D","locale":"en-US","buyingOptionType":"NEW","aapiBuyingOptionIndex":0}]}

Purchase options and add-ons

An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk.

The shocks and crises of recent years—pandemic, recession, inflation, war—have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected.

How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions?

In this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives—what they call "economic eclecticism"—the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, the financial system, and the geopolitical arena.

Moreover, the authors' more nuanced approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms themselves, while the fundamental strengths of our current "era of tightness" become visible.

With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times—and provides a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.

Previous slide of product details
  1. Print length
    320 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Harvard Business Review Press
  4. Publication date
    July 9, 2024
  5. Dimensions
    6.5 x 1 x 10 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    1647825407
  7. ISBN-13
    978-1647825409
  8. See all details
Next slide of product details

Frequently bought together

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
This item: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
$27.46
In Stock
Ships from and sold by Amazon.com.
+
How Nations Escape Poverty: Vietnam, Poland, and the Origins of Prosperity
$22.57
In Stock
Ships from and sold by Amazon.com.
Total price:
To see our price, add these items to your cart.
Details
Added to Cart
spCSRF_Control
Choose items to buy together.

From the Publisher

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Ali Dibadj endorsement
Miki Tsusaka endorsement
Andre MAaciel endorsement
Your compass to navigating the macroeconomy.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"…this is a stimulating primer on how business leaders can keep abreast of changing economic tides." — Publisher's Weekly

"a fresh, thorough and practicable book for anyone who wants to sharpen their macroeconomic judgment, structured in an easily accessible and insightful manner. It offers an invaluable framework to better understand growth, the financial sector and the key trends shaping the global economy." — Financial Times

Advance Praise for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms:

"A provocative, pragmatic, and didactic take on a topic that is top of mind for corporate leaders around the world. A rich tapestry of insight . . . for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the intricacies of macroeconomics." — Andre Maciel, Global CFO, Kraft Heinz

"Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms brings great clarity to the macroeconomic realities leaders need to understand . . . This book helped ground my thinking and understanding of global uncertainties." — Miki Tsusaka, President, Microsoft Japan

"The authors refreshingly argue that it is misplaced to believe in silver-bullet models. With this book, everyone can learn to navigate what may come." — Ali Dibadj, CEO, Janus Henderson

"A valuable framework to improve decision-making in an uncertain world. The authors replace the false precision of point forecasts with an analytical focus on the economic drivers that shape risk." — Tom Luddy, former Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Investment Management

"A tour de force! The authors combine the skills of economist, Wall Street analyst, and historian to bring a unique perspective to the issues that drive economic risk. And an enjoyable read to boot!" — Colin McGranahan, Global Director of Research, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

"Timeless, compelling, and thought-provoking, the book also provides a framework for strengthening your own judgment." — Frank Brosens, member of the Board of Directors, Peterson Institute of International Economics; cofounder, Taconic Capital

"A vital guide to thinking about macroeconomic risks." — Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

"A compass for navigating macroeconomic risk. . . . A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics." — Hon. Bill Morneau, former Minister of Finance, Canada

"A great book . . . The focus on underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful." — Thomas Sweet, former CFO, Dell Technologies

About the Author

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is BCG’s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm's New York office.

Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He coleads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York.

The authors use their ongoing tactical and strategic research to advise executives and investors on macroeconomic risk, and they frequently publish and comment on the macroeconomy in Harvard Business Review, Fortune, World Economic Forum Agenda, and other business publications.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Harvard Business Review Press (July 9, 2024)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 320 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1647825407
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1647825409
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 12.8 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.5 x 1 x 10 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.9 4.9 out of 5 stars 19 ratings

About the authors

Follow authors to get new release updates, plus improved recommendations.
prevPageText
  1. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

    Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

    Brief content visible, double tap to read full content.
    Full content visible, double tap to read brief content.

    Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is BCG's Global Chief Economist and a Managing Director & Partner in the firm's New York office. He is a regular contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum Agenda, and other business publications. You can read Philipp’s latest thinking in his Fortune column. Philipp was previously Chief Economist at Sanford C. Bernstein where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors across the global asset management industry. Earlier in his career, he worked for the OECD and McKinsey & Company . Philipp studied at LSE and has a Ph.D from Oxford University.

    See more on the author's page
  2. Paul Swartz

    Paul Swartz

    Brief content visible, double tap to read full content.
    Full content visible, double tap to read brief content.

    Paul Swartz is a senior economist and executive director at Boston Consulting Group’s Center for Macroeconomics (BCG Henderson Institute). He previously worked at AB Bernstein, where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul focused on researching and communicating global macroeconomic dynamics for investors and policy makers while working within the Investment Strategy Group at Goldman Sachs, the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and the research department at Bridgewater Associates. He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean's Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.

    See more on the author's page
nextPageText

Customer reviews

4.9 out of 5 stars
19 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Anonymous
5.0 out of 5 stars Economic Wisdom
Reviewed in the United States on July 19, 2024
Verified Purchase
We live in a world that has become so overly specialized that we cannot see the forest for the mycorrhizae. Consequently, we mistake clouds for smoke and fail to see the real emergencies. This book manifests the wisdom of Solomon by honoring the macro in macroeconomics through approaching economics from the renaissance perspective of the widest possible context of knowledge. At the same time, the authors understand that, even then, there is much that they do not know and cannot know, not having the benefit of the prophetic insights of special revelation. The authors do not provide a silver bullet for wealth, which always misses the target. Instead, they gift the reader with a framework for humble stewardship that gives hope for blessing and, especially, peace in the midst of uncertainty. That is true wisdom.
3 people found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
Amanda
5.0 out of 5 stars Great for business audience of all levels of economics knowledge
Reviewed in the United States on August 5, 2024
Verified Purchase
As a non-economist, with limited background in economics - I found this book to be approachable, educational and written in a way that any business leader, student, or curious mind could grasp the concepts. Eye-opening, educational, and memorable - I have taken away a much better understanding of the underlying forces of the economy!
One person found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
Michael B. Rainey
5.0 out of 5 stars Great read!
Reviewed in the United States on July 26, 2024
Verified Purchase
The authors offer a fresh anpproach and helpful critique of the tendency towards alarmist instincts. Good read and will have you enable you to consider new perspectives.
One person found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
Matthew
5.0 out of 5 stars A macro primer and dispeller of persistent negativity
Reviewed in the United States on July 10, 2024
Verified Purchase
Great book for those interested in understanding the economy with nuance--and learning how to sift through the media's persistent negativity. I recommend it to CEOs and strategists, too. You can't control the economy, but you can pivot around it. A must-read!
One person found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
Matt
5.0 out of 5 stars Well-Rounded & In-Depth
Reviewed in the United States on July 26, 2024
Verified Purchase
Love the fresh perspective and simple framework. "It's an art, not a science"
Helpful
 Report
Robert Morris
5.0 out of 5 stars How and why assessing macroeconomic risks requires highly developed judgment
Reviewed in the United States on July 9, 2024
Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz have wide and deep real-world experience with all manner of organizations that were struggling to avoid or overcome barriers to accurate assessments of macroeconomic risk. As they explain with exquisite precision, they focus on (begin italics) what it would take for true crises to happen (end italics) -- "not simply on the question of whether they will happen...So, it is true that macroeconomics lacks the elegance of a solo performer, like physics. But it plays well in a band. We must bring in a broader set of perspectives and methods to make it shine...Leadership is abuut navigating uncertainty. If the future were readily predictable, there would be nothing special about leading -- it would be mere execution. Assessing microeconomic risk is no different. It involves a mix of knowledge, skill, and experience. -- in short, judgment."

They hope you and other readers will benefit across the following dimensions:

1. Develop new analytical skill(s)
2. Negotiate the macroeconomic risk landscape with confidence
3. Think like a rational optimist
4. Hear our views

These four are briefly discussed on Pages 12-13 and throughout the lively narrative.

These are among the passages of greatest interest and value to me, also listed to suggest the nature and extent of Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz's coverage:

o Good Macro at Risk (Pages 3-15)
o Navigating Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms (4-7)
o How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (17-30)
o Letting Go of Master Model Mentality (20-21)
o Emerging Markets: Actionable practices (24-25)

o How Cycles Die: Critical Risk Profile (33-54)
o Why Policy Recessions Still Matter (38-40)
o The Gravity of Growth (57-70, 79-90, and 245-246)
o The Enduring Appeal of Magical Growth Models (67-77)
o When Technology Lifts Growth and When It Doesn't (79-80)

o Remember, Stimulus Is about Willingness and Ability (115-125)
o Why Tactical Stimulus Sputters (127-129
o Inflation (137-148, 150-153, 157-158, and 247-249)
o Remember, Capital Allocation Will Have to Be More Disciplined (167-168)
o The Threat of Debt, Imagined and Real (169-179

o Learning to Love and Live with Bubbles (181-191)
o The Rise of the Convergence Bubble (197-202)
o Trade, Not as Bad as It Sounds (219-229)
o The False Alarms of Dollar Death (233-235)
o Remember, Dollar Obituaries Will Remain Premature (238-239)

Keep in mind that, in Shocks, Cr!ses, and False Alarms, Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz do not offer a comparative analysis of major economics and their relative potential, nor do they devote separate chapters to key topics such as artificial intelligence (AI), climate change, and the Chinese economy. As indicated previously, their purpose is to help you and countless others to navigate macreconomic risk effectively.

They urge all executives to "embrace a more grounded approach to macro risk...macroeconomics is about [begin italics] judgment [end italics] -- not prediction [because] judgment is the basis of better decision-making (avoiding costly traps), and it can reduce experienced volatility (enabling smoother leadership). Nobody controls economic volatility -- but leaders can choose what they focus on."

I congratulate Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz on Shocks, Cr!ses, and False Alarms. It is a brilliant achievement. Bravo!

* * *

Here are two suggestions while you are reading it: First, highlight key passages Also,  perhaps in a lined notebook kept near-at- hand, record your comments, questions, action steps (preferably with deadlines), page references, and lessons you have learned as well as your responses to key points posed within the narrative. Also record your responses to specific or major issues or questions addressed, especially at the conclusion of chapters.

These two simple tactics — highlighting and documenting — will facilitate, indeed expedite frequent reviews of key material later.
3 people found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
Chris Brigham
5.0 out of 5 stars A Brief Master Course in Economics
Reviewed in the United States on July 23, 2024
While written with the modern executive in mind, this is a masterful book that deserves a read from anyone with an interest or background in economics. I was fortunate enough to be colleagues with Philipp and Paul in their days at Bernstein and regularly found their framework- and logic-based approaches to be a much-needed North Star in a world filled with hot takes. They've packaged those insights and more into this book. It's about getting away from fancy models, overly precise forecasts, and single-scenario thinking and instead taking a broader, more holistic, and logical approach to economic questions. What frameworks make sense for the issue at hand? What does history have to say on the matter? What can we have more or less confidence in? It's a matter not of modeling, but of judgment. This is easily one of the best books on macroeconomics I've read in recent years and I'd put it in my "macro canon" for those interested in the topic.

(Disclosure: I received my copy as a gift from the authors and I'm not being paid or anything to review it. It just deserves to be read if you have an interest in economics and how the world works.)
One person found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
Matt H
5.0 out of 5 stars Unique and Thoughtful Approach to a Critical Topic
Reviewed in the United States on July 25, 2024
I have been reading Philipp and Paul's work for several years now. They're outstanding and it is incredibly valuable to have all of this aggregated in one place. This is a great read for sophisticated investors, business leaders, or people just generally interested in the economy.
One person found this helpful
Helpful
 Report

Top reviews from other countries

Translate all reviews to English
Nick
5.0 out of 5 stars An excellent book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 7, 2024
Verified Purchase
This is an excellent book. It distills complex topics in a clear and concise way for both investors and anyone with an interest in economics/business. It is a refreshing antidote to many news headlines and articles, which skew negatively in the interest of increasing engagement and clicks.
Report
MB
5.0 out of 5 stars Guter und praktischer Überblich
Reviewed in Germany on July 31, 2024
Verified Purchase
Gegen „doomsayers“ und Berechenbarkeitspropheten ziehen die beiden Autoren zu Felde. Stattdessen geben sie Entscheidern gute Instrumente an die Hand, um im makroökonomischen Umfeld navigieren zu können - und behalten dabei ihren „rational optimism“.
Report