MESA, Ariz. — When top prospects mash in the spring, it’s easy to get excited. It’s not just fans who get worked up. Even Chicago Cubs team president Jed Hoyer can’t help but have a smile on his face when watching the future thrive in Arizona.
“That to me is the fun of spring,” Hoyer said. “I don’t get to see them every day. Even though the evaluative part isn’t great, watching them play every day is really fun. I feel like an organization is in a good position when innings six through nine in spring training are exciting and fun. I feel like we’re in a good position there.”
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The Cubs farm system is a consensus top-five group in baseball. Some would argue it’s the best collection of prospect talent in the game. The hype has only grown as players like Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie impress with their performances in the spring.
But it’s important to keep it all in perspective. First of all, manager Craig Counsell has already let it be known that many of these players who are experiencing their first camp — like Shaw and Caissie — won’t be making the Opening Day roster. These aren’t unsaid assumptions. Counsell has told both players their regular seasons will start in the minors.
Some fans may not understand why that’s the case. They see success on the field, albeit in the spring, and quickly get lost in the hype. But Counsell pointed out a few obvious reasons. Neither player has reached Triple A. Caissie is still just 21 and both corner outfield spots in the majors are filled by quality veterans. This is a player who needs to play regularly, not watch from the bench. A year ago at this time, Shaw was playing in the Big Ten. He’s also trying to learn a new position and generally getting acclimated to pro ball. He projects to move quickly through the minors, but Opening Day isn’t in the cards. There’s plenty of development needed for both.
.@owen_caissie goes oppo 🌮 for the lead! pic.twitter.com/AbCA9EFplg
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) March 1, 2024
“Owen, it’s a camp to really listen, learn, watch,” Counsell said. “He’s probably played more than he thought he was going to play. That’s been great for him; that gives you good feedback. It’s the kind of camp you want for your first major league camp.
“Matt, his experience at camp has been very good. We’ve been able to get him a ton of at-bats. We’ve been able to expose him to third base a little bit which has been great. It showed (Tuesday) night and he made a couple really nice plays. It was fun to see.”
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Still, some fans see Caissie’s OPS above 1.000 or Shaw quickly adjusting to a new position and want immediate gratification. Within the organization, there are high hopes for these players. Hoyer and Counsell surely want both to earn their way up. But that time isn’t now.
“This is the worst place to try and evaluate,” Hoyer said. “No one’s trying to get anyone out with any kind of scouting report. If a guy has a huge weakness, no one’s actually hitting it in spring training. Hitters are working on stuff, pitchers are working on stuff, playing every other day, getting three at-bats. More and more, I have this laundry list of awful decision-making in spring training based on who looked really good and who looked awful.”
Joc Pederson tore up spring training in 2021. Then in the first two weeks of the regular season, he posted a .398 OPS. Dansby Swanson looked lost for all of March last year. He then calmly went and delivered 10 base knocks in his first four games. There are so many examples of players, veterans and youngsters, who look one way in the spring and then the complete opposite come the regular season.
But it’s clear listening to Counsell that Caissie, in particular, has made an early impression. Even if it is a small sample.
“It’s really hard to imagine a player playing better than he’s played over his first 10 days,” Counsell said. “He’s played wonderfully, he really has. It’s impressive. (Tuesday) night he sat there for three hours and came off the bench basically in a pinch-hit experience and hit a ball really hard. It’s a snippet, but it’s impressive. You get excited about all that. But also know that there is meaningful development left for those guys.”
Shaw and Caissie are confident that they’re going to get to the highest level and thrive. But they’re also aware of flaws in their games they need to work to cover up.
Shaw knows he has to improve defensively at third; one impressive play doesn’t mean he has it all figured out. He also wants to do a better job of elevating offspeed pitches — “Ground balls are outs,” he said.
Matt Shaw has RANGE at third base! pic.twitter.com/EwuzrNy2MO
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) March 6, 2024
Caissie wants to work on his in-zone swing and miss. He believes his high strikeout numbers will come down and he’s focused on sticking with his up-the-middle approach. He believes he got too pull-happy at times last season and that could have been a big reason for the in-zone issues.
Both players believe they’ll be able to cover those holes. The coaches who are closest to them do as well because they see the work they put in.
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While neither player is going to disrespect their manager and publicly demand to be elevated to the majors immediately, there’s a competitive nature and confidence with both that likely means they believe they could succeed if presented with that challenge. Counsell doesn’t necessarily want them to just accept their fate.
“I don’t know if a player should agree with me on it,” Counsell said. “It’s a disagreement we should have. He should be always pushing me and he should be trying to change our minds. That’s the knocking the door down — just try to change our minds. That’s kind of their job. That’s what great players do. They make you go faster because they just keep proving, ‘Give me more, give me another challenge.’”
Hoyer wants the players to make it clear that a decision needs to be made.
“You’re wanting it to happen at the right time,” he said. “You want guys to dominate in the minors. I think we always want to be infusing the team with young talent all the time. My hope of course is it’s happening because they bang down the door and not because you feel like you’re rushing a guy because of an injury.”
The Cubs farm system is about as exciting as it’s been in nearly a decade. But the actual big-league lineup looks very similar to the one that put up 819 runs (sixth-most in the majors) last summer. Instead of relying on past-their-prime veterans for depth, the youth gives this offense upside for even more production.
But many of these prospects need more development. And even when the organization decides the time is right assuming that they’ll immediately succeed would be a mistake. There will be growing pains along the way. Learning from them and getting better along the way is important.
This team is primed to take a step forward this season. If the youth arrives and is quickly impactful, it could be more of a leap. Some may want it all now. Still, the Cubs aren’t going to rush these players. If they time this properly and give these players the development they need, their patience could pay off in a significant way as soon as this summer.
(Photo of Caissie: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
