The Fantasy Football Science article series will use advanced metrics, analytics, game tape reviews, statistical trends, and myriad other elements to give fantasy football managers an edge in fantasy drafts, waivers, trades, and start-sit selections. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail in my 2021 draft guide, which is available at TheFootballScientist.com.
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The Declaration of Independence says all men are created equal, but that sure doesn’t apply when it comes to fantasy football and run blocking. My good blocking metric system has shown over its 15-year span that there are often massive variances in how often a running back receives quality run blocking and how well ball carriers capitalize on good blocking rush opportunities.
Proper use of this knowledge can provide fantasy managers with many chances to add value across their rosters, so let’s look at some of the 2020 good blocking metrics to see how they may portend for the 2021 performance of three topflight running backs in fantasy football.
Quick glossary
- GBYPA = good blocking yards per attempt
- GBR = good blocking rate
- GBP = good blocking productivity
The long form definition of good blocking is outside the scope of this article, but it can be very loosely defined as when a team’s blockers do not allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt. GBYPA tracks the average gain on good blocking plays. GBR measures how frequently a club gets good blocking. GBP takes GBYPA and GBR and combines them into a single metric that indicates how well a team is doing overall in this area.
Melvin Gordon
Fantasy players understandably wanted to throw in the towel on Gordon before last year. In 2019, he missed four games for the second straight season, posted a meager 3.8 YPC, and tallied fewer than 1,000 scrimmage yards before leaving the Chargers for the shaky Denver offense. Gordon’s advanced metrics agreed with the fantasy world’s assessment, as his 6.8 GBYPA in 2019 ranked 40th out of 46 qualifying running backs.
Those same managers should be looking to get back on the Gordon bandwagon based on his 2020 figures, as Gordon’s 9.2 GBYPA placed 15th overall and was ninth best out of 26 backs with 50+ good blocking rush attempts.
Denver certainly isn’t about to go with a pass heavy approach, as the Broncos ranked 13th in rush attempts last season and could go even more run heavy if Teddy Bridgewater earns the starting quarterback job as expected. Denver also has the most favorable rush defense schedule in the league headed into this campaign, which is another motivating factor to lean on the ground game.
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For those concerned about Javonte Williams preventing Gordon from reaching his potential, the reality is that the Broncos coaches realize that Gordon has posted 250 or more scrimmage plays only two times in his career, the last being in 2017. Gordon would probably prefer to serve as Denver’s bell cow or lead back, as he is in the second year of a two-year contract, but he may actually be better served to go with a platoon workload, as many backs wear down as the carry volume increases.
Now combine all these elements with the fact that Gordon is a red zone specialist who ranked tied for 15th in rushing touchdowns in that area of the field (7, per Pro-Football-Reference) and has scored nine or more scrimmage touchdowns in five straight seasons.
That sounds like someone who should draw a lot of attention in fantasy drafts and yet Gordon is falling into the sixth round on average — and sometimes as low as the seventh round. He really should be going in either round 4 or 5, per my rankings, so there is a huge opportunity for sixth-round upside with a Gordon selection.
J.K. Dobbins
Fantasy managers have become much better in recent years at identifying outlier performances and adjusting player rankings accordingly. This can cause course corrections in draft day value, but how much adjustment is too much?
It’s a key question in the case of J.K. Dobbins. Last season, Dobbins posted an incredible 11.5 GBYPA that easily led the league in that category. That total was four-tenths of a yard higher than second place (Phillip Lindsay, 11.1) and nearly one yard better than the two backs tied for third place (Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry, both with a 10.6 mark).
When a number is that far ahead of the field, it is all but certain to be a regression candidate — but there are two things to keep in mind regarding Dobbins.
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First, Baltimore places a huge emphasis on dominating the line of scrimmage. The Ravens topped the NFL in my GBP metric that gauges overall run blocking performance, which indicates they were arguably the best run blocking team in pro football last year. Baltimore has one of the best offensive line coaches in the league in Joe D’Alessandris, added guard Kevin Zeitler and tackle Alejandro Villanueva in free agency, drafted Ben Cleveland, a 6-foot-6, 357-pound goliath who dominates at the point of attack, and should get tackle Ronnie Stanley back in time for Week 1. All those factors lean in the direction of the Ravens once again being a tremendous run blocking platoon.
Second, hitting big plays is par for the course for Dobbins. He was the first Ohio State running back to ever post 2,000 rushing yards in a single campaign. He was also the first Buckeyes running back to rush for 1,000 yards in his freshman, sophomore, and junior seasons. Dobbins also ranked fourth among running backs nationally in rushes of 20+ yards in 2019 (20, per cfbstats.com).
Even if we assume that Dobbins can’t return to the mountaintop that is an 11.5 GBYPA, if he drops by two yards in that metric he will still likely be a top 10 back in that category.
Those are some of the many reasons that I have Dobbins rated as a potential value pick in fantasy football this year. He ranks No. 11 on my non-PPR running back charts, No. 15 on my PPR charts and has blue-rated upside in both of those formats. Even with this tremendous upside potential, Dobbins is lasting until the third round in many draft rooms, at which point he could be one of the best picks a fantasy manager makes in 2021.
Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke is working hard to get into better shape because, by his own admission, he played poorly last season, but the metrics show this wasn’t a one-year issue for Elliott.
In 2018, Elliott posted an 8.3 GBYPA that ranked tied for 18th among qualifying running backs (100+ planned rush attempts to qualify). That number fell in 2019, when he placed 25th in that category, and then the bottom fell out of the barrel for Elliott last year, as his 7.5 GBYPA ranked 41st out of 46 qualifiers.
What makes matters worse is that Tony Pollard, Elliott’s backup, racked up a 9.3 GBYPA last season, which tied for 13th. If the production disparity continued in favor of Pollard through this season, Dallas would eventually start shifting some of Elliott’s workload over to Pollard’s column.
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Add it up and it means that Elliott realized he couldn’t get by on reputation alone anymore and had to slim down and speed up. That should lead to a bounce-back season, which is why he rates third on my running back board, a slot that is higher than the No. 5 or No. 6 ADP Elliott has in most draft rooms.
(Top photo: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
