Background: Altered expression of p53 protein is an important predictor of progression in bladder cancer. The action of p53 on cell cycle regulation is mediated, in part, through expression of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p21WAF/CIP1 (p21). Loss of p21 expression may, therefore, contribute to tumor progression. We sought to determine the relationship between p21 expression in bladder cancer and disease progression.

Methods: Tumor specimens were obtained from 242 patients who underwent cystectomy for bladder cancer. Median follow-up was 8.5 years (range, 0.1-11.8 years). Nuclear p21 status was determined by immunohistochemistry and was then analyzed in relationship to the probability of tumor recurrence, overall survival, and tumor p53 status. Reported P values are two-sided.

Results: Nuclear p21 expression was detected in the tumors of 156 (64%) of the 242 patients. Patients with p21-positive tumors had a decreased probability of tumor recurrence (P<.00001) and an increased probability of overall survival (P<.00001) in comparison with patients with p21-negative tumors. In a multivariable analysis, p21 expression was an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (P = .0017) and of survival (P = .006) when assessed with tumor grade, tumor stage, lymph node status, and p53 status. p21 expression was associated with p53 status (P<.001); 56% of tumors with p53 alterations showed loss of p21 expression, whereas 79% of tumors expressing wild-type p53 were p21 positive. Patients with p53-altered/p21-negative tumors demonstrated a higher rate of recurrence and worse survival compared with those with p53-altered/p21-positive tumors (P<.0001). Patients with 53-altered/p21-positive tumors demonstrated a similar rate of recurrence and survival as those with p53-wild type tumors.

Conclusion: Loss of p21 expression is a statistically significant and independent predictor of bladder cancer progression. Maintenance of p21 expression appears to abrogate the deleterious effects of p53 alterations on bladder cancer progression.