Different Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Influenza Suggest the Relative Efficiency of Isolation/Quarantine and Social Distancing Against COVID-19 in China
- PMID: 33080000
- PMCID: PMC7665384
- DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1584
Different Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Influenza Suggest the Relative Efficiency of Isolation/Quarantine and Social Distancing Against COVID-19 in China
Abstract
Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China.
Methods: In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in 2018-2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured susceptible/infected/recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios.
Results: The mean effective reproductive number, Rt, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.02-2.21). By 11 March 2020, the overall reduction in Rt of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI, 60.1-71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019-20, influenza transmissibility was reduced by 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) compared with transmissibility in epidemiological year 2018-19. Under the observed contact pattern changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in 3 different scenarios. By assuming the same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to 48.1% (95% CI, 35.4-58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) reductions of the transmissibility of COVID-19, respectively.
Conclusions: Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that the typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2-3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China.
Keywords: COVID-19; effective reproductive number; efficiency; influenza; non-pharmaceutical interventions.
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Comment in
-
Will Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Prevention Efforts Affect the Coming Influenza Season in the United States and Northern Hemisphere?J Infect Dis. 2020 Nov 9;222(11):1759-1761. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa571. J Infect Dis. 2020. PMID: 32894862 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
Similar articles
-
Analysis of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic by time-series forecasting.BMC Infect Dis. 2023 Oct 24;23(1):717. doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08640-y. BMC Infect Dis. 2023. PMID: 37875817 Free PMC article.
-
Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study.Lancet Public Health. 2020 May;5(5):e279-e288. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30090-6. Epub 2020 Apr 17. Lancet Public Health. 2020. PMID: 32311320 Free PMC article.
-
Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States.Nat Commun. 2021 May 31;12(1):3249. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23440-1. Nat Commun. 2021. PMID: 34059675 Free PMC article.
-
Factors Associated with the Implementation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Reducing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Systematic Review.Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Apr 17;18(8):4274. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18084274. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021. PMID: 33920613 Free PMC article. Review.
-
Place of distancing measures in containing epidemics: a scoping review.Libyan J Med. 2022 Dec;17(1):2140473. doi: 10.1080/19932820.2022.2140473. Libyan J Med. 2022. PMID: 36325628 Free PMC article. Review.
Cited by
-
Epidemiological analysis of influenza vaccination coverage in Pudong New Area, Shanghai (2013-2023): Implications for influenza vaccination strategies.Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2024 Dec 31;20(1):2412887. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2412887. Epub 2024 Oct 10. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2024. PMID: 39387339 Free PMC article.
-
Burden changes in notifiable infectious diseases in Taiwan during the COVID-19 pandemic.PeerJ. 2024 Sep 9;12:e18048. doi: 10.7717/peerj.18048. eCollection 2024. PeerJ. 2024. PMID: 39267943 Free PMC article.
-
Risk of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in Seoul, Korea.Infect Chemother. 2024 Jun;56(2):204-212. doi: 10.3947/ic.2022.0167. Epub 2024 Feb 28. Infect Chemother. 2024. PMID: 38527778 Free PMC article.
-
Impact of the COVID-19 related border restrictions on influenza and other common respiratory viral infections in New Zealand.Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2024 Feb;18(2):e13247. doi: 10.1111/irv.13247. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2024. PMID: 38350715 Free PMC article.
-
Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China.PNAS Nexus. 2023 May 4;2(5):pgad152. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad152. eCollection 2023 May. PNAS Nexus. 2023. PMID: 37215632 Free PMC article.
Publication types
MeSH terms
Grants and funding
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Medical