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. 2020 Mar 21;395(10228):931-934.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5. Epub 2020 Mar 9.

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Roy M Anderson  1 , Hans Heesterbeek  2 , Don Klinkenberg  3 , T Déirdre Hollingsworth  4
Affiliations

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Roy M Anderson et al. Lancet. .
No abstract available

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Figures

Figure
Figure
Illustrative simulations of a transmission model of COVID-19 A baseline simulation with case isolation only (red); a simulation with social distancing in place throughout the epidemic, flattening the curve (green), and a simulation with more effective social distancing in place for a limited period only, typically followed by a resurgent epidemic when social distancing is halted (blue). These are not quantitative predictions but robust qualitative illustrations for a range of model choices.
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