Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044

. 2020 Jan;25(3):2000044.

doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044.

Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Peng Wu¹, Xinxin Hao¹, Eric H Y Lau¹, Jessica Y Wong¹, Kathy S M Leung¹, Joseph T Wu¹, Benjamin J Cowling^{1

2}, Gabriel M Leung^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
² These authors are joint senior authors with equal contribution.

PMID: 31992388
PMCID: PMC6988272
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044

Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Peng Wu et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan.

. 2020 Jan;25(3):2000044.

doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044.

Authors

Peng Wu¹, Xinxin Hao¹, Eric H Y Lau¹, Jessica Y Wong¹, Kathy S M Leung¹, Joseph T Wu¹, Benjamin J Cowling^{1

2}, Gabriel M Leung^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
² These authors are joint senior authors with equal contribution.

PMID: 31992388
PMCID: PMC6988272
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044

Abstract

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9-32%).

Keywords: Coronavirus; public health.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: BJC reports honoraria from Sanofi Pasteur and Roche not related to this work. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest.

Figures

**Figure 1**
Increase in laboratory-confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV infection over time, as at 21 January 2020

**Figure 2**
Temporal changes in estimated risk of death among laboratory-confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV admitted to hospital^a, Wuhan, China, as at 21 January 2020

See this image and copyright information in PMC

Cited by

Inferring the Association between the Risk of COVID-19 Case Fatality and N501Y Substitution in SARS-CoV-2.
Zhao S, Lou J, Chong MKC, Cao L, Zheng H, Chen Z, Chan RWY, Zee BCY, Chan PKS, Wang MH. Zhao S, et al. Viruses. 2021 Apr 8;13(4):638. doi: 10.3390/v13040638. Viruses. 2021. PMID: 33918060 Free PMC article.
Clinical features and follow-up of pediatric patients hospitalized for COVID-19.
Tang F, Luo W, Wang X, Li H, Mei H, Shao J, Song Q. Tang F, et al. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2021 Jul;56(7):1967-1975. doi: 10.1002/ppul.25407. Epub 2021 Apr 14. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2021. PMID: 33852775 Free PMC article. Review.
The recent challenges of highly contagious COVID-19, causing respiratory infections: Symptoms, diagnosis, transmission, possible vaccines, animal models, and immunotherapy.
Mohapatra RK, Pintilie L, Kandi V, Sarangi AK, Das D, Sahu R, Perekhoda L. Mohapatra RK, et al. Chem Biol Drug Des. 2020 Nov;96(5):1187-1208. doi: 10.1111/cbdd.13761. Epub 2020 Jul 26. Chem Biol Drug Des. 2020. PMID: 32654267 Free PMC article. Review.
Measuring the effect of interpersonal communication on awareness and knowledge of COVID-19 among rural communities in Eastern Nigeria.
Ezeah G, Ogechi EO, Ohia NC, Celestine GV. Ezeah G, et al. Health Educ Res. 2020 Oct 1;35(5):481-489. doi: 10.1093/her/cyaa033. Health Educ Res. 2020. PMID: 33090218 Free PMC article.
Significant relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions may result in profound mortality: A New York state modelling study.
Hoffman BU. Hoffman BU. PLoS One. 2020 Sep 24;15(9):e0239647. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239647. eCollection 2020. PLoS One. 2020. PMID: 32970745 Free PMC article.

See all "Cited by" articles

References

1. Su S, Wong G, Shi W, Liu J, Lai ACK, Zhou J, et al. Epidemiology, Genetic Recombination, and Pathogenesis of Coronaviruses. Trends Microbiol. 2016;24(6):490-502. 10.1016/j.tim.2016.03.003 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Fan Y, Zhao K, Shi ZL, Zhou P. Bat Coronaviruses in China. Viruses. 2019;11(3):E210. 10.3390/v11030210 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Hui DS. Epidemic and Emerging Coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). Clin Chest Med. 2017;38(1):71-86. 10.1016/j.ccm.2016.11.007 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Guan Y, Peiris JS, Zheng B, Poon LL, Chan KH, Zeng FY, et al. Molecular epidemiology of the novel coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet. 2004;363(9403):99-104. 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)15259-2 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. World Health Organization Regional Office for the (WHO/Eastern Mediterranean). MERS Situation Update. Cairo: WHO/Eastern Mediterranean; Nov2019. [Accessed 11 Jan 2020]. Available from: http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/EMRPUB-CSR-241-2019-EN.pdf?ua=1&ua=1

MeSH terms

Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

[1] Su S, Wong G, Shi W, Liu J, Lai ACK, Zhou J, et al. Epidemiology, Genetic Recombination, and Pathogenesis of Coronaviruses. Trends Microbiol. 2016;24(6):490-502. 10.1016/j.tim.2016.03.003 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[2] Su S, Wong G, Shi W, Liu J, Lai ACK, Zhou J, et al. Epidemiology, Genetic Recombination, and Pathogenesis of Coronaviruses. Trends Microbiol. 2016;24(6):490-502. 10.1016/j.tim.2016.03.003 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[3] Fan Y, Zhao K, Shi ZL, Zhou P. Bat Coronaviruses in China. Viruses. 2019;11(3):E210. 10.3390/v11030210 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[4] Fan Y, Zhao K, Shi ZL, Zhou P. Bat Coronaviruses in China. Viruses. 2019;11(3):E210. 10.3390/v11030210 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[5] Hui DS. Epidemic and Emerging Coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). Clin Chest Med. 2017;38(1):71-86. 10.1016/j.ccm.2016.11.007 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[6] Hui DS. Epidemic and Emerging Coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). Clin Chest Med. 2017;38(1):71-86. 10.1016/j.ccm.2016.11.007 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[7] Guan Y, Peiris JS, Zheng B, Poon LL, Chan KH, Zeng FY, et al. Molecular epidemiology of the novel coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet. 2004;363(9403):99-104. 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)15259-2 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[8] Guan Y, Peiris JS, Zheng B, Poon LL, Chan KH, Zeng FY, et al. Molecular epidemiology of the novel coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet. 2004;363(9403):99-104. 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)15259-2 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[9] World Health Organization Regional Office for the (WHO/Eastern Mediterranean). MERS Situation Update. Cairo: WHO/Eastern Mediterranean; Nov2019. [Accessed 11 Jan 2020]. Available from: http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/EMRPUB-CSR-241-2019-EN.pdf?ua=1&ua=1

[10] World Health Organization Regional Office for the (WHO/Eastern Mediterranean). MERS Situation Update. Cairo: WHO/Eastern Mediterranean; Nov2019. [Accessed 11 Jan 2020]. Available from: http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/EMRPUB-CSR-241-2019-EN.pdf?ua=1&ua=1

Save citation to file

Email citation

Add to Collections

Add to My Bibliography

Your saved search

Create a file for external citation management software

Your RSS Feed

Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Affiliations

Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Figures

Similar articles

Cited by

References

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Figures

Similar articles

Cited by

References

MeSH terms

Related information

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources