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Review
. 2019 Feb 28:13:135.
doi: 10.3389/fnins.2019.00135. eCollection 2019.

Machine Learning in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Achievements, Pitfalls, and Future Directions

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Review

Machine Learning in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Achievements, Pitfalls, and Future Directions

Vincent Grollemund et al. Front Neurosci. .

Abstract

Background: Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive neurodegenerative condition with limited therapeutic options at present. Survival from symptom onset ranges from 3 to 5 years depending on genetic, demographic, and phenotypic factors. Despite tireless research efforts, the core etiology of the disease remains elusive and drug development efforts are confounded by the lack of accurate monitoring markers. Disease heterogeneity, late-stage recruitment into pharmaceutical trials, and inclusion of phenotypically admixed patient cohorts are some of the key barriers to successful clinical trials. Machine Learning (ML) models and large international data sets offer unprecedented opportunities to appraise candidate diagnostic, monitoring, and prognostic markers. Accurate patient stratification into well-defined prognostic categories is another aspiration of emerging classification and staging systems. Methods: The objective of this paper is the comprehensive, systematic, and critical review of ML initiatives in ALS to date and their potential in research, clinical, and pharmacological applications. The focus of this review is to provide a dual, clinical-mathematical perspective on recent advances and future directions of the field. Another objective of the paper is the frank discussion of the pitfalls and drawbacks of specific models, highlighting the shortcomings of existing studies and to provide methodological recommendations for future study designs. Results: Despite considerable sample size limitations, ML techniques have already been successfully applied to ALS data sets and a number of promising diagnosis models have been proposed. Prognostic models have been tested using core clinical variables, biological, and neuroimaging data. These models also offer patient stratification opportunities for future clinical trials. Despite the enormous potential of ML in ALS research, statistical assumptions are often violated, the choice of specific statistical models is seldom justified, and the constraints of ML models are rarely enunciated. Conclusions: From a mathematical perspective, the main barrier to the development of validated diagnostic, prognostic, and monitoring indicators stem from limited sample sizes. The combination of multiple clinical, biofluid, and imaging biomarkers is likely to increase the accuracy of mathematical modeling and contribute to optimized clinical trial designs.

Keywords: amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; clustering; diagnosis; machine learning; motor neuron disease; prognosis; risk stratification.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The clinical heterogeneity of Motor Neuron Disease common phenotypes and distinct syndromes.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Clustering model for patient stratification. The available data consist of basic clinical features; age and BMI. Given this specific ALS patient population, the objective is to explore if patients segregate into specific subgroups. After running a clustering algorithm, we obtain clusters and cluster memberships for each patient. Further analysis of shared traits within the same cluster can help identify novel disease phenotypes. (A) Initial data samples without output. (B) Identify cluster and cluster membership. (C) Stratify samples based on shared feature traits.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Decision tree model for diagnosis. The available data consist of three basic neuroimaging features: average Corticospinal Tract (CST) Fractional Anisotropy (FA), Motor Cortex (MC) thickness, and average Corpus Callosum (CC) FA. For patient 0, these features are reduced CST FA, reduced MC thickness, reduced CC FA. The target is to classify subjects between healthy and ALS subjects. Establishing a diagnosis requires to run through the decision tree till there are no more questions to answer. At step 1, the closed question directs to the right node due to patient 0's CST pathology. At step 2, the closed question directs to the right node due to patient 0's MC pathology. At step 3, the closed question directs to the left node due to patient 0 CC involvement. Step 3 is the last step as there is no more steps below. The diagnosis for patient 0 is the arrival cell value which is ALS.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Random forest for diagnosis. The available data consist of basic biomarkers features which are MUNIX, CSF Neurofilament (NF) levels, Vital Capacity (VC), and BMI. The objective is to classify subjects between healthy and ALS patients. The RF contains 3 decisions trees which use different feature subsets to learn a diagnosis model. Tree A learns on all available features, Tree B learns on MUNIX and VC, Tree C learns on NF levels and BMI. Each tree proposes a diagnosis. RF diagnosis is computed based on the majority vote of each of the trees contained in the forest. Given that two out of three trees concluded that patient 0 had ALS, the final diagnosis suggested by the model is ALS.
Figure 5
Figure 5
SVM model for prognosis. The available data consist of basic clinical and demographic features; age and site of onset. The objective is to classify patients according to 3-year survival. In the input space (where features are interpretable), no linear hyperplane can divide the two patient populations. The SVM model projects the data into a higher dimensional space—in our example a three dimensional space. The set of two features is mapped to a set of three features. In the feature space, a linear hyperplane can be computed which discriminates the two populations accurately. The three features used for discrimination are unavailable for analysis and interpretability is lost in the process.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Neural Network model for prognosis. The available data consist of basic demographic and clinical features: age, BMI and diagnostic delay. For patient 0, these features are 50, 15kg/m2, and 15 months, respectively. The objective is to predict ALSFRS-r in 1 year. The multi-layer perceptron consists of two layers. Nodes are fed by input with un-shaded arrows. At layer 1, the three features are combined linearly to compute three node values, C1, C2, and C3. C1 is a linear combination of age and delay, C2 is a linear combination of age, delay and BMI, and C3 is a linear combination of BMI and delay. For patient 0, computing the three values returns 10, 2, and 2 for C1, C2, and C3, respectively. At layer 2, outputs from layer 1 (i.e., C1, C2, and C3) are combined linearly to compute two values, CA and CB. CA is a linear combination of C1 and C2 while CB is a linear combination of C1 and C3. For patient 0, computing the two values gives 24 and 14 for CA and CB, respectively. Model output is computed after computing linear combination of CA and CB and applying a non-linear function (in this case a maximum function which can be seen as a thresholding function which accepts only positive values). The output is the predicted motor functions decline rate. For patient 0, the returned score is 26.

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