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. 2016 Nov 29;113(48):E7681-E7690.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1612191113. Epub 2016 Nov 21.

The emergence of longevous populations

Fernando Colchero  1   2   3 , Roland Rau  3   4 , Owen R Jones  1   5 , Julia A Barthold  1   6 , Dalia A Conde  1   5 , Adam Lenart  1   6 , Laszlo Nemeth  3 , Alexander Scheuerlein  3 , Jonas Schoeley  1   3   6 , Catalina Torres  1   6 , Virginia Zarulli  1   6 , Jeanne Altmann  7   8 , Diane K Brockman  9 , Anne M Bronikowski  10 , Linda M Fedigan  11 , Anne E Pusey  12 , Tara S Stoinski  13 , Karen B Strier  14 , Annette Baudisch  1   5   6 , Susan C Alberts  15   12   16   17 , James W Vaupel  18   3   6   17
Affiliations

The emergence of longevous populations

Fernando Colchero et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

The human lifespan has traversed a long evolutionary and historical path, from short-lived primate ancestors to contemporary Japan, Sweden, and other longevity frontrunners. Analyzing this trajectory is crucial for understanding biological and sociocultural processes that determine the span of life. Here we reveal a fundamental regularity. Two straight lines describe the joint rise of life expectancy and lifespan equality: one for primates and the second one over the full range of human experience from average lifespans as low as 2 y during mortality crises to more than 87 y for Japanese women today. Across the primate order and across human populations, the lives of females tend to be longer and less variable than the lives of males, suggesting deep evolutionary roots to the male disadvantage. Our findings cast fresh light on primate evolution and human history, opening directions for research on inequality, sociality, and aging.

Keywords: biodemography; equality; lifespan; pace and shape; senescence.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Lifespan distributions for males and females. Each panel presents the proportion of individuals dying by age for females (red) and males (blue). Infant mortality (before age 1 y) is reported in Inset pie charts. The solid vertical lines mark life expectancies for each sex. The dashed vertical lines indicate the average number of years of life expectancy lost due to death. Keyfitz’s entropy is given by this value divided by life expectancy (Box 1). For the muriqui, capuchin, and female gorillas, the curves are extrapolated beyond maximum estimated lifespans within the dataset, as indicated by dotted curves and diagonal shading (Materials and Methods).
Fig. S1.
Fig. S1.
Survivorship curves for each sex for the 12 datasets analyzed. Each panel represents the survivorship (proportion surviving) for females (red) and males (blue) for the seven species including six datasets for humans. The solid vertical lines mark life expectancies for each sex. The dashed vertical lines indicate the average number of years of life expectancy lost due to death. Keyfitz’s entropy is given by this value divided by life expectancy (Box 1). For the muriqui, capuchin, and female gorillas, the curves are extrapolated beyond maximum estimated lifespans within the dataset, as indicated by dotted curves and diagonal shading (Materials and Methods).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Ranking of four measures of length of life and five measures of variation in lifespan, for females and males in the 12 focal populations. The rank ordering of the populations for each measure is shown in increasing order (lowest to the left, highest to the right).
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Scatterplots showing relationships among selected measures of the length of life and lifespan equality for the 12 datasets analyzed. A–C show scatterplots between measures of length of life, D–F show comparisons between measures of lifespan equality, and G–I show scatterplots between length of life and measures of lifespan equality. For display purposes, the values of the Gini coefficient and the coefficient of variation were transformed by subtracting each population’s value from the maximum in the dataset.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
The continuum of lifespan equality and life expectancy in primates. In A–C, the y axis shows our measure of lifespan equality, the log of the inverse of Keyfitz’s entropy; corresponding values of Keyftiz’s entropy are given in parentheses in A. (A) The evolutionary-historical continuum in lifespan equality and life expectancy for the 12 focal populations (Fig. 1) and 16 additional human populations (Table S4). The equation for the gray regression line is ε^0i=− 0.96 + 0.037 e0i (slope: t = 41.45, P < 0.0001, df = 20), and for the yellow regression line ε^0i=− 0.18 + 0.014 e0i (slope: t = 3.34, P = 0.02, df = 7), where ε^0i denotes the estimated lifespan equality for the ith population and e0i life expectancy. We also estimated a version of the yellow regression line using only hunter-gatherer data for humans: This line is ε^0i=− 0.17 + 0.0135 e0i (slope: t = 3.17, P = 0.02, df = 7). (B) The continuum for 8,198 human life tables. The blue curved line describes the relationship between lifespan equality and life expectancy if mortality follows Gompertz’s law, i.e., if the risk of death rises exponentially, increasing 14%/y. Because of the paucity of observations, the 99% confidence intervals (CIs) are not shown for life expectancies below 35 y or over 85 y. (C) The continuum for three short-term crisis populations when mortality sharply rose and then sharply declined from year to year. In A and C, data for female–male pairs from each population are indicated by a point with a “tail”; the point represents female values, with male values at the end of the tail.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
Absolute and relative male–female differences in life expectancy and lifespan equality. Absolute differences between the male and female values are shown in the Top two panels; relative differences are shown in the Bottom two panels, expressed as the percentage of difference of males from females. Dark red dashed lines represent the median of each set of values; all medians lie in the direction of a female advantage.
Fig. S2.
Fig. S2.
Circles represent times of entry; solid circles are known times of birth and open circles are entries after birth. Squares are departure times where solid squares are known times of death and open squares are out-migration. Solid triangles indicate individuals known to be alive until the end of the study and vertical bars indicate unknown type of departure.
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