Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2014 Nov 1:210 Suppl 1:S412-23.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jit834.

Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in the high-risk area of northwest Nigeria

Dominika A Kalkowska  1 , Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens  2 , Kimberly M Thompson  2
Affiliations

Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in the high-risk area of northwest Nigeria

Dominika A Kalkowska et al. J Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Nigeria continues to struggle in its efforts to eliminate circulating live polioviruses using oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV).

Methods: We modeled population immunity, and we estimated cases and the timing of transmission die-out for numerous policies that could accelerate the elimination of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) and help Nigeria manage the risks of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs). We used a differential-equation based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model focused on northwest Nigeria to characterize the impact and trade-offs of potential vaccination strategies, including the introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV).

Results: Northwest Nigeria appears close to reaching the threshold of population immunity it must exceed to stop WPV1 transmission if it continues immunizing previously under-vaccinated children. Avoiding type 2 cVDPVs (cVDPV2s) will depend on using sufficient amounts of trivalent OPV, which will also reduce the risks of cVDPV2s after coordinated cessation of type 2-containing OPV (OPV2). Using IPV during the OPV cessation period may increase population immunity, but it leads to a much lower impact on cVDPV risks than ensuring sufficient trivalent OPV use prior to OPV2 cessation.

Conclusions: Northwest Nigeria needs to intensify and sustain its immunization efforts to achieve and maintain higher levels of population immunity.

Keywords: IPV; OPV; eradication; polio; population immunity.

PubMed Disclaimer

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

Publication types

MeSH terms

Substances