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. 2014 Sep 25:14:996.
doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-996.

Projection scenarios of body mass index (2013-2030) for Public Health Planning in Quebec

Ernest Lo  1 , Denis Hamel, Yun Jen, Patricia Lamontagne, Sylvie Martel, Colin Steensma, Chantal Blouin, Russell Steele
Affiliations

Projection scenarios of body mass index (2013-2030) for Public Health Planning in Quebec

Ernest Lo et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Projection analyses can provide estimates of the future health burden of increasing BMI and represent a relevant and useful tool for public health planning. Our study presents long-term (2013-2030) projections of the prevalence and numbers of individuals by BMI category for adult men and women in Quebec. Three applications of projections to estimate outcomes more directly pertinent to public health planning, as well as an in-depth discussion of limits, are provided with the aim of encouraging greater use of projection analyses by public health officers.

Methods: The weighted compositional regression method is applied to prevalence time series derived from sixteen cross-sectional survey cycles, for scenarios of linear change and deceleration. Estimation of the component of projected change potentially amenable to intervention, future health targets and the projected impact on type 2 diabetes, were done.

Results: Obesity prevalence in Quebec is projected to rise steadily from 2013 to 2030 in both men (from 18.0-19.4% to 22.2-30.4%) and women (from 15.5-16.3% to 18.2-22.4%). Corresponding projected numbers of obese individuals are (579,000-625,000 to 790,000-1,084,000) in men and (514,000-543,000 to 661,000-816,000) in women. These projected increases are found to be primarily an 'epidemiologic' rather than 'demographic' phenomenon and thus potentially amenable to public health intervention. Assessment of obesity targets for 2020 illustrates the necessity of using projected rather than current prevalence; for example a targeted 2% drop in obesity prevalence relative to 2013 translates into a 3.6-5.4% drop relative to 2020 projected levels. Type 2 diabetes is projected to increase from 6.9% to 9.2-10.1% in men and from 5.7% to 7.1-7.5% in women, from 2011-2012 to 2030. A substantial proportion of this change (25-44% for men, and 27-43% for women) is attributable to the changing BMI distribution.

Conclusions: Obesity in Quebec is projected to increase and should therefore continue to be a public health priority. Application of projections to estimate the proportion of change potentially amenable to intervention, feasible health targets, and future chronic disease prevalence are demonstrated. Projection analyses have limitations, but represent a pertinent tool for public health planning.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Projections (2013 to 2030) of age-aggregated prevalence by BMI category, for men and women. The linear scenario is indicated by the black line, the deceleration scenario is indicated by the gray line, and the historical BMI time series data are indicated by the open circles.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projections (2013 to 2030) of age-aggregated numbers of individuals by BMI category, for men and women. The linear scenario is indicated by the black line, the deceleration scenario is indicated by the gray line, and the historical BMI time series data are indicated by the open circles.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Separation of epidemiologic and demographic contributions to the projected change in obesity prevalence and numbers of individuals, for men and women. The linear scenario is indicated by the black line and the deceleration scenario is indicated by the gray line. The demographic projection using 2011–2012 as reference is indicated by the dotted line; the corresponding epidemiologic projections are indicated by the black and gray circles. The demographic projection using 1987 as reference is indicated by the dashed line.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Three hypothetical future obesity targets are shown, superimposed on projected trends. In each graph, the black line indicates the linear scenario and the black dotted arrow indicates the corresponding target relative to the projection. The gray line indicates the deceleration scenario and the gray dotted arrow indicates the corresponding target. Numbers to the right of each graph indicate the difference between targeted and projected prevalence (ΔP TP) for the linear (black) and deceleration (gray) scenarios respectively.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Projections of the impact of BMI on type 2 diabetes prevalence. The linear scenario is indicated by the black line and the deceleration scenario is indicated by the gray line. The demographic projection using 2011–2012 as reference is indicated by the dotted line; the corresponding epidemiologic projections are indicated by the black and gray circles.
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Pre-publication history
    1. The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2458/14/996/prepub