Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2013 Oct;32(10):1706-14.
doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0449.

More americans living longer with cardiovascular disease will increase costs while lowering quality of life

Ankur Pandya, Thomas A Gaziano, Milton C Weinstein, David Cutler

More americans living longer with cardiovascular disease will increase costs while lowering quality of life

Ankur Pandya et al. Health Aff (Millwood). 2013 Oct.

Abstract

In the past several decades, some risk factors for cardiovascular disease have improved, while others have worsened. For example, smoking rates have dropped and treatment rates for cardiovascular disease have increased-factors that have made the disease less fatal. At the same time, Americans' average body mass index and incidence of diabetes have increased as the population continues to live longer-factors that have made cardiovascular disease more prevalent. To assess the aggregate impact of these opposing trends, we used the nine National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey waves from 1973 to 2010 to forecast total cardiovascular disease risk and prevalence from 2015 to 2030. We found that continued improvements in cardiovascular disease treatment and declining smoking rates will not outweigh the influence of increasing population age and obesity on cardiovascular disease risk. Given an aging population, an obesity epidemic, and declining mortality from the disease, the United States should expect to see a sharp rise in the health care costs, disability, and reductions in quality of life associated with increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease. Policies that target the treatment of high blood pressure and cholesterol and the reduction of obesity will be necessary to curb the imminent spike in cardiovascular disease prevalence.

Keywords: Cardiovascular Disease; Obesity; Primary Prevention; Public Health; Tobacco/Smoking.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Exhibit 1
Exhibit 1
Caption: Average Ten-Year Risk Of Cardiovascular Disease In The United States For Men And Women Ages 25–85, 1991–2010 And 2015–30 Source/Notes: SOURCES Authors’ calculations based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys for the trend analysis (1991–2010) and authors’ analysis for projections (2015–30). NOTE Linear trend lines added for trend analysis (solid lines) and projections (dotted lines).
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 2
Caption: Age-Adjusted Average Ten-Year Risk Of Cardiovascular Disease In The United States For Men And Women Ages 25–85, 1991–2010 And 2015–30 Source/Notes: SOURCES Authors’ calculations based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys for trend analysis (1991–2010) and authors’ analysis for projections (2015–30). NOTE Linear trend lines added for trend analysis (solid lines) and projections (dotted lines).
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 3
Caption: Prevalence Of Cardiovascular Disease In The United States For Men And Women Ages 25–85, 2000–10 And 2015–30 Source/Notes: SOURCES Authors’ calculations based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys for trend analysis (2000–10) and authors’ analysis for projections (2015–30). NOTE Linear trend lines added for trend analysis (solid lines) and projections (dotted lines).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System data. Hyattsville (MD): NCHS; 2012.
    1. Roger VL, Go AS, Lloyd-Jones DM, Benjamin EJ, Berry JD, Borden WB, et al. Heart disease and stroke statistics—2012 update: a report from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2012;125(1):e2–e220. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Feinleib M, Kannel WB, Garrison RJ, McNamara PM, Castelli WP. The Framingham Offspring Study. Design and preliminary data. Prev Med. 1975;4(4):518–525. - PubMed
    1. White AD, Folsom AR, Chambless LE, Sharret AR, Yang K, Conwill D, et al. Community surveillance of coronary heart disease in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study: methods and initial two years’ experience. J Clin Epidemiol. 1996;49(2):223–233. - PubMed
    1. National Center for Health Statistics. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Hyattsville (MD): NCHS; 2012.

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources