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Review
. 2012;6(5):e1648.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001648. Epub 2012 May 22.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Vanessa Racloz  1 , Rebecca Ramsey, Shilu Tong, Wenbiao Hu
Affiliations
Review

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Vanessa Racloz et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012.

Abstract

Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Graphical summary of the literature search process.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Flow chart process for data incorporation in dengue fever outbreak modelling.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Transmission pathway and risk factors involved in dengue fever outbreaks.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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