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Review
. 2010 Sep 27;365(1554):2835-51.
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0153.

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050

Keith W Jaggard  1 , Aiming Qi, Eric S Ober
Affiliations
Review

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050

Keith W Jaggard et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. .

Abstract

By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO(2) concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2 degrees C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO(2) enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO(2)-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Selected sites for weather data and crop yield assessment in different regions.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Seasonal mean temperatures at selected sites (see figure 1) in decades centred on 2000 (filled black bar) and 2050 (filled grey bar). The Northern Hemisphere (a) spring is March, April and May; (b) summer is June, July and August; (c) autumn is September, October and November and (d) winter is December, January and February. The allocation of the months is reversed in the Southern Hemisphere. The data are the means of 10 years' daily simulations generated by HadCM3.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Seasonal total precipitation at selected sites (see figure 1) in decades centred on 2000 (filled black bar) and 2050 (filled grey bar). The Northern Hemisphere (a) spring is March, April and May; (b) summer is June, July and August; (c) autumn is September, October and November and (d) winter is December, January and February. The allocation of the months is reversed in the Southern Hemisphere. The data are the means of 10 years' daily simulations generated by HadCM3.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Yields of (a) sugar beet and (b) wheat in official variety tests in the UK and national average yields in the same year. Data sources are http://statistics.defra.gov.uk, www.hgca.com ((a); open triangle, commercial; filled triangle, variety trial and (b) open circle, commercial; filled circle, variety trial).
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Frequency distribution of five-year average (2004–2008) adjusted root yields of sugar beet contracts, classified as percentages of all growers or as percentages of all tonnage delivered to British Sugar factories. Data from British Sugar plc (filled black bar, % tonnes; filled grey bar, % growers).
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