Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease
- PMID: 16076827
- PMCID: PMC7109816
- DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwi230
Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease
Abstract
During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital.
Figures



Similar articles
-
[Estimation and application of case fatality rate, using the summarizing data].Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2014 May;35(5):600-5. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2014. PMID: 25059378 Chinese.
-
Timely case-fatality risk estimation.Epidemiology. 2015 Mar;26(2):e26-7. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000258. Epidemiology. 2015. PMID: 25643118 No abstract available.
-
A test for constant fatality rate of an emerging epidemic: with applications to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong and Beijing.Biometrics. 2008 Sep;64(3):869-876. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00935.x. Epub 2007 Nov 19. Biometrics. 2008. PMID: 18047531 Free PMC article.
-
Severe acute respiratory syndrome.Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2003 Dec;7(12):1117-30. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2003. PMID: 14677886 Review.
-
[SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). Emergent transmissible disease].Rev Med Chir Soc Med Nat Iasi. 2003 Apr-Jun;107(2):250-2. Rev Med Chir Soc Med Nat Iasi. 2003. PMID: 14755924 Review. Romanian.
Cited by
-
Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 600 000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Int J Epidemiol. 2023 Apr 19;52(2):355-376. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyad012. Int J Epidemiol. 2023. PMID: 36850054 Free PMC article.
-
Evolution of the lethality due to SARS-CoV-2 in Spain according to age group and sex.Sci Rep. 2022 Dec 21;12(1):22052. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-25635-y. Sci Rep. 2022. PMID: 36543873 Free PMC article.
-
Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of an age-structured emerging infectious disease model.Infect Dis Model. 2021 Dec 25;7(1):149-169. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.12.004. eCollection 2022 Mar. Infect Dis Model. 2021. PMID: 35059531 Free PMC article.
-
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility.Lancet Infect Dis. 2014 Jan;14(1):50-56. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70304-9. Epub 2013 Nov 13. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014. PMID: 24239323 Free PMC article.
-
Advances in the relationship between coronavirus infection and cardiovascular diseases.Biomed Pharmacother. 2020 Jul;127:110230. doi: 10.1016/j.biopha.2020.110230. Epub 2020 May 13. Biomed Pharmacother. 2020. PMID: 32428835 Free PMC article. Review.
References
-
- World Health Organization. SARS epidemiology to date. (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/epi2003_04_11/en/). April 11, 2003.
-
- Leung GM, Quah S, Ho LM, et al. A tale of two cities: community psychobehavioral surveillance and related impact on outbreak control in Hong Kong and Singapore during the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2004;25:1033–41. - PubMed
-
- Fan EX. SARS: economic impacts and implications. (ERD policy brief no. 15). (http://www.adb.org/Documents/EDRC/Policy_Briefs/PB015.pdf). May 2003.
-
- World Health Organization. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/). October 2004.