Purpose: This study was performed to determine the long-term outcome for women with mammographically detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS; intraductal carcinoma) of the breast treated with breast-conserving surgery followed by definitive breast irradiation.

Methods and materials: An analysis was performed of 422 mammographically detected intraductal breast carcinomas in 418 women from 11 institutions in North America and Europe. All patients were treated with breast-conserving surgery followed by definitive breast irradiation. The median follow-up time was 9.4 years (mean, 9.4 years; range, 0.1-19.8 years).

Results: The 15-year overall survival rate was 92%, and the 15-year cause-specific survival rate was 98%. The 15-year rate of freedom from distant metastases was 94%. There were 48 local failures in the treated breast, and the 15-year rate of any local failure was 16%. The median time to local failure was 5.0 years (mean, 5.7 years; range, 1.0-15.2 years). Patient age at the time of treatment and final pathology margin status from the primary tumor excision were both significantly associated with local failure. The 10-year rate of local failure was 31% for patient age < or = 39 years, 13% for age 40-49 years, 8% for age 50-59 years, and 6% for age > or = 60 years (p = 0.0001). The 10-year rate of local failure was 24% when the margins of resection were positive, 9% when the margins of resection were negative, 7% when the margins of resection were close, and 12% when the margins of resection were unknown (p = 0.030). Patient age < or = 39 years and positive margins of resection were both independently associated with an increased risk of local failure (p = 0.0006 and p = 0.023, respectively) in the multivariable Cox regression model.

Conclusions: The 15-year results from the present study demonstrated high rates of overall survival, cause-specific survival, and freedom from distant metastases following the treatment of mammographically detected ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast using breast-conserving surgery and definitive breast irradiation. Younger age and positive margins of resection were both independently associated with an increased risk of local failure. The 15-year results in the present study serve as an important benchmark for comparison with other treatment modalities. These results support the use of breast-conserving surgery and definitive breast irradiation for the treatment of appropriately selected patients with mammographically detected ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.