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. 2024 Apr 30;58(17):7567-7576.
doi: 10.1021/acs.est.3c10583. Epub 2024 Apr 16.

Process-Based and Probabilistic Quantification of Co and Ni Mobilization Risks Induced by Managed Aquifer Recharge

Claudio Vergara-Sáez  1   2 , Henning Prommer  1   2 , Adam J Siade  1   2 , Jing Sun  1   2   3 , Simon Higginson  4
Affiliations

Process-Based and Probabilistic Quantification of Co and Ni Mobilization Risks Induced by Managed Aquifer Recharge

Claudio Vergara-Sáez et al. Environ Sci Technol. .

Abstract

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is an increasingly used water management technique that enhances water availability while commonly generating water quality benefits. However, MAR activities may also trigger adverse geochemical reactions, especially during the injection of oxidant-enriched waters into reducing aquifers. Where this occurs, the environmental risks and the viability of mitigating them must be well understood. Here, we develop a rigorous approach for assessing and managing the risks from MAR-induced metal mobilization. First, we develop a process-based reactive transport model to identify and quantify the main hydrogeochemical drivers that control the release of metals and their mobility. We then apply a probabilistic framework to interrogate the inherent uncertainty associated with adjustable model parameters and consider this uncertainty (i) in long-term predictions of groundwater quality changes and (ii) in scenarios that investigate the effectiveness of modifications in the water treatment process to mitigate metal release and mobility. The results suggested that Co, Ni, Zn, and Mn were comobilized during pyrite oxidation and that metal mobility was controlled (i) by the sediment pH buffering capacity and (ii) by the sorption capacity of the native aquifer sediments. Both tested mitigation strategies were shown to be effective at reducing the risk of elevated metal concentrations.

Keywords: managed aquifer recharge; metal mobility; probabilistic framework; reactive transport modeling; uncertainty.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Observed and simulated breakthrough behavior of key species and pH variations at the monitoring bore YMB1. Cyan lines show the optimized reactive transport model using the estimated parameters from the GLM coupled with Tikhonov regularization, while black dashed lines show the non-reactive transport behavior. Comparative model simulations are shown for deactivated proton buffering reactions (blue lines); deactivated glauconite dissolution (orange lines); deactivation of the sorption capacity of any newly formed ferrihydrite (black straight lines); and deactivation of sorption capacity of the native Yarragadee sediments (red lines).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Spatiotemporal variations of MAR-induced hydrogeochemical changes. The vertical axis displays the model extent in radial direction between the injection bore YMR1 (bottom) and the RMZ boundary (top). The horizontal white lines indicate the location of monitoring bore YMB1. The horizontal axis indicates the temporal changes, clearly illustrating the migration of the acidification front. “Metal onto Yar” represents metal sorption onto the native sediments in the Yarragadee aquifer. Note that elevated dissolved metal concentrations are mostly found within the low-pH zone. Metal accumulation sorption occurs just beyond the pH transition zone, where pH has remained circumneutral.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Predicted concentration at the RMZ boundary for ∼50 years after June 2021 assuming a constant injection rate of 10 ML/day. Gray lines show individual realizations of the ∼800-member ensemble. Green lines represent the median concentration, while red lines show the first and third quartiles. Dashed blue horizontal lines show drinking water guideline values for Ni (0.34 μmol/L; 0.02 mg/L) and Co (0.017 μmol/L; 0.001 mg/L) defined by NHMRC and Water Corporation, respectively. Note that first arrival of elevated concentration of Co and Ni are predicted to occur ∼31 years (∼year 2048) and ∼50 years (∼year 2070) since the start of the injection in 2017. Other key species, including Zn, Mn, Fe, and Al, are not expected to occur at elevated concentration at the RMZ boundary during the next 50 years.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Comparison of the probability distribution of simulated concentrations at the RMZ boundary as a measure of the effectiveness of the tested mitigation strategies. Without mitigation, ∼100% of the realizations showed a guideline exceedance for the concentrations of Co at the RMZ boundary after ∼2065. Deoxygenation achieved near 100% mitigation effectiveness, while raising the alkalinity of the injectant showed around 87% of the realizations an exceedance of Co concentrations above the guideline value (dashed red line). Note that results obtained from the single-run outputs from the Tikhonov regularization show Co concentrations lower than the guideline value after both mitigation were tested, which is not likely to be the case for the bicarbonate mitigation strategy. This could lead to biased decisions when not considering a more robust probabilistic approach.
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