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. 2023 Nov 18;30(11):9981-9995.
doi: 10.3390/curroncol30110725.

Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020-2040

Darren R Brenner  1 , Chantelle Carbonell  1 , Dylan E O'Sullivan  1 , Yibing Ruan  1 , Robert B Basmadjian  1 , Vickey Bu  2 , Eliya Farah  1 , Shaun K Loewen  3 , Tara R Bond  4 , Angela Estey  4 , Anna Pujadas Botey  4   5 , Paula J Robson  2   4   5
Affiliations

Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020-2040

Darren R Brenner et al. Curr Oncol. .

Abstract

The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across the continuum. In this paper, we present a series of detailed projections and analyses regarding cancer epidemiological estimates in Alberta, Canada. Data on cancer incidence and mortality in Alberta (1998-2018) and limited-duration cancer prevalence in Alberta (2000-2019) were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. We used the Canproj package in the R software to project these epidemiological estimates up to the year 2040. To estimate the direct management costs, we ran a series of microsimulations using the OncoSim All Cancers Model. Our findings indicate that from 2020, the total number of annual new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths are projected to increase by 56% and 49% by 2040, respectively. From 2019, the five-year prevalence of all cancers in Alberta is projected to increase by 86% by 2040. In line with these trends, the overall direct cost of cancer management is estimated to increase by 53% in 2040. These estimates and projections are integral to future strategic planning and investment.

Keywords: Canada; cancer; cancer incidence; cancer management costs; cancer mortality; cancer prevalence; cancer survival; projections; trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
New cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for all cancers, 2020–2040.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The past and projected cancer 1-, 2-, and 5-year prevalence and the age-standardized prevalence rates of all cancers in Alberta, 2000–2040, by sex.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Cancer deaths and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for all cancers, 2020–2040.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Estimated direct cancer management costs for all cancers combined in 2020 and projected to 2040.
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Grants and funding

This research received no external funding.

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