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. 2023 Nov 15;68(21):2620-2628.
doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.09.041. Epub 2023 Sep 29.

Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020

Rongshou Zheng  1 , Shaoming Wang  1 , Siwei Zhang  1 , Hongmei Zeng  1 , Ru Chen  1 , Kexin Sun  1 , Li Li  1 , Freddie Bray  2 , Wenqiang Wei  3
Affiliations

Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020

Rongshou Zheng et al. Sci Bull (Beijing). .

Abstract

The lifetime risk of cancer is a measure of the cumulative risk of cancer over a specific age range and has a clear, intuitive appeal. However, comparative assessments of cancer-specific risk across populations are limited. We used the adjusted for multiple primaries method to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer from the obtained data from GLOBOCAN for 185 countries/regions for the year 2020, alongside all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations. The estimated global lifetime risk of cancer from birth to death was 25.10% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.08%-25.11%) in 2020; the risk was 26.27% (95% CI: 26.24%-26.30%) in men and 23.96% (95% CI: 23.93%-23.98%) in women. Significant differences were observed in the risks between countries/regions within world areas and by the human development level. The lifetime risk of cancer was 38.48%, 25.38%, 11.36%, and 10.34% in countries/regions with very high, high, medium, and low Human Development Index, respectively. Globally, prostate and breast cancers were associated with the greatest lifetime risks among men and women (4.65% and 5.90%, respectively). The lifetime risk of cancer decreased with age, with a remaining risk of 12.61% (95% CI: 12.60%-12.63%) from the age of 70 years. The lifetime risk from birth to death translates to approximately one in four persons developing cancer, with men and women having similar risk levels. The identified age-specific variations in cancer risk at the population level can provide crucial information to support targeted cancer prevention and health system planning.

Keywords: Burden; Cancer incidence; Epidemiology; Global; Lifetime risk.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Lifetime risks of developing cancer by geographic areas and sex. (a) Men. (b) Women. Green diamonds denote the average lifetime risk in each selected geographic areas; vertical lines denote the estimated lifetime risk in each selected countries/regions.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Global lifetime risks of developing cancer in men and women by age at diagnosis in 2020. (a) Men. (b) Women. Curves are represented for baseline ages at birth, 40, 50, 60, and 70 years of cancer-free life. Risks until death represent lifetime risk from the baseline age.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Correlation between lifetime probability of developing cancer and traditional cumulative risk measure (ages 0–74 years) with both sexes combined. The red line indicates the fitted risks using quadratic regression with a 95% confidence interval; the short dash black line indicates the reference line where the risk estimations of two measures are equal; the color circles indicate the risks in different countries/regions with different life expectancy.
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