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. 2023 Apr 5;23(1):651.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-15486-1.

Bayesian spatial modeling of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence in Costa Rica

Affiliations

Bayesian spatial modeling of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence in Costa Rica

Mario J Gómez et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Childhood overweight and obesity levels are rising and becoming a concern globally. In Costa Rica, the prevalence of these conditions has reached alarming values. Spatial analyses can identify risk factors and geographical patterns to develop tailored and effective public health actions in this context.

Methods: A Bayesian spatial mixed model was built to understand the geographic patterns of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence in Costa Rica and their association with some socioeconomic factors. Data was obtained from the 2016 Weight and Size Census (6 - 12 years old children) and 2011 National Census.

Results: Average years of schooling increase the levels of overweight and obesity until reaching an approximate value of 8 years, then they start to decrease. Moreover, for every 10-point increment in the percentage of homes with difficulties to cover their basic needs and in the percentage of population under 14 years old, there is a decrease of 7.7 and 14.0 points, respectively, in the odds of obesity. Spatial patterns show higher values of prevalence in the center area of the country, touristic destinations, head of province districts and in the borders with Panama.

Conclusions: Especially for childhood obesity, the average years of schooling is a non-linear factor, describing a U-inverted curve. Lower percentages of households in poverty and population under 14 years old are slightly associated with higher levels of obesity. Districts with high commercial and touristic activity present higher prevalence risk.

Keywords: Bayesian; Childhood; Costa Rica; Multinomial; Obesity; Overweight; Spatial.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Geographical patterns of overweight and obesity prevalence in Costa Rica. a Overweight prevalence. b Obesity prevalence. Grey polygons represent districts without data
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Geographical patterns of socioeconomic covariates
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Association between covariates and prevalence of obesity and overweight
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Geographical patterns of the estimated posterior mean prevalence values in Costa Rica. a Overweight estimated prevalence. b Obesity estimated prevalence
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Geographical patterns of exceedance probabilities in Costa Rica. a Probability that overweight prevalence exceeds 20%. b Probability that obesity prevalence exceeds 14%

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