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. 2023 Mar 13;18(3):e0282611.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282611. eCollection 2023.

The volatility of beef and lamb prices in Türkiye: The role of COVID-19, livestock imports, and energy prices

Gurkan Bozma  1 , Faruk Urak  2 , Abdulbaki Bilgic  3 , Wojciech J Florkowski  4
Affiliations

The volatility of beef and lamb prices in Türkiye: The role of COVID-19, livestock imports, and energy prices

Gurkan Bozma et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

This study examines the volatility of beef and lamb prices in Türkiye, as food price inflation compromises the food security of low- and middle-income households. The inflation is the result of a rise in energy (gasoline) prices leading to an increase in production costs, together with a disruption of the supply chain by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is the first to comprehensively explore the effects of multiple price series on meat prices in Türkiye. Using price records from April 2006 through February 2022, the study applies rigorous testing and selects the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK bivariate GARCH model for empirical analysis. The beef and lamb returns were affected by periods of livestock imports, energy prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic, but those factors influenced the short- and long-term uncertainties differently. Uncertainty was increased by the COVID-19 pandemic, but livestock imports offset some of the negative effects on meat prices. To improve price stability and assure access to beef and lamb, it is recommended that livestock farmers be supported through tax exemptions to control production costs, government assistance through the introduction of highly productive livestock breeds, and improving processing flexibility. Additionally, conducting livestock sales through the livestock exchange will create a price information source allowing stakeholders to follow price movements in a digital format and their decision-making.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Daily real prices of beef and lamb.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Time–varying return series of beef and lamb.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Squares of time–varying return series of beef and lamb.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Time–varying conditional variances of beef and lamb.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Time–varying conditional correlation between beef and lamb.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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Grants and funding

The authors received no specific funding for this work.