Background: The validation of breast cancer risk biomarkers in benign breast samples (BBS) is a long-sought goal, hampered by the fluctuation of gene and protein expression with menstrual phase (MP) and menopausal status (MS). Previously, we identified hormone-related gene expression and histomorphology parameters to classify BBS by MS/MP. We now evaluate both together, to validate our prior results.

Patients and methods: BBS were obtained from consenting women (86 premenopausal, 55 postmenopausal) undergoing reduction mammoplasty (RM) or contralateral unaffected breast (CUB) mastectomy. MP/MS was defined using classical criteria for menstrual dates and hormone levels on the day of surgery. BBS gene expression was measured with reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for three luteal phase (LP) genes (TNFSF11, DIO2, MYBPC1) and four menopausal genes (PGR, GREB1, TIFF1, CCND1). Premenopausal samples were classified into LP or non-LP, using published histomorphology parameters. Logistic regression and receiver-operator curve analysis was performed to assess area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of MP/MS.

Results: In all 131 women, menopausal genes plus age > 50 years predicted true MS [AUC 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89, 0.97]. Among premenopausal women, high TNFSF11 expression distinguished non-LP from LP samples (AUC 0.80, 95% CI 0.70, 0.91); the addition of histomorphology improved the prediction nonsignificantly (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.78, 0.96). In premenopausal subsets, addition of histomorphology improved LP prediction in RM (AUC 0.95, 95% CI 0.87, 1.0), but not in CUB (0.84, 95% CI 0.72, 0.96).

Conclusions: Expression of five-gene set accurately predicts menopausal status and menstrual phase in BBS, facilitating the development of breast cancer risk biomarkers using large, archived sample repositories.