Purpose: To investigate the influence of vertebral endplate defects and subchondral bone marrow changes on the development of lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration (DD).

Methods: Patients > 18 y/o without any history of lumbar fusion who had repeat lumbar magnetic resonance imaging scans primarily for low back pain (LBP) performed at a minimum of 3 years apart at a single institution, and no spinal surgery in between scans were included. Total endplate score (TEPS), Modic changes (MC), and Pfirrmann grading (PFG) per lumbar disc level were assessed. DD was defined as PFG ≥ 4.

Results: Three hundred and fifty-three patients (54.4% female) were included in the final analysis, comprising 1765 lumbar intervertebral discs. The patient population was 85.6% Caucasian with a median age of 60.1 years and a body mass index (BMI) of 25.8 kg/m². A cutoff score of 5 was identified for the TEPS above which both the prevalence of DD and the odds of developing DD increased. The probability of developing DD did not differ significantly between lumbar disc levels (P = 0.419). In the multivariable analysis with adjustments for age, sex, race, body mass index (BMI), MC, TEPS cutoff > 5, and spinal level, only age (OR = 1.020; P = 0.002) was found to be an independent risk factor for developing intervertebral DD.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that TEPS does not unequivocally predict intervertebral DD in patients with LBP, since higher degrees of endplate defects might also develop secondarily to DD, and MC tend to occur late in the cascade of degeneration.