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. 2023 Feb:114:133-146.
doi: 10.1016/j.apm.2022.09.008. Epub 2022 Oct 3.

Exploring meteorological impacts based on Köppen-Geiger climate classification after reviewing China's response to COVID-19

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Exploring meteorological impacts based on Köppen-Geiger climate classification after reviewing China's response to COVID-19

Fangyuan Chen et al. Appl Math Model. 2023 Feb.

Abstract

More than 30 months into the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, efforts to bring this prevalence under control have achieved tentative achievements in China. However, the continuing increase in confirmed cases worldwide and the novel variants imply a severe risk of imported viruses. High-intensity non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the mainly used measures of China's early response to COVID-19, which enabled effective control in the first wave of the epidemic. However, their efficiency is relatively low across China at the current stage. Therefore, this study focuses on whether measurable meteorological variables be found through global data to learn more about COVID-19 and explore flexible controls. This study first examines the control measures, such as NPIs and vaccination, on COVID-19 transmission across 189 countries, especially in China. Subsequently, we estimate the association between meteorological factors and time-varying reproduction numbers based on the global data by meta-population epidemic model, eliminating the aforementioned anthropogenic factors. According to this study, we find that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 transmission varied wildly among Köppen-Geiger climate classifications, which is of great significance for the flexible adjustment of China's control protocols. We obtain that in southeast China, Köppen-Geiger climate sub-classifications, Cwb, Cfa, and Cfb, are more likely to spread COVID-19. In August, the RSIM of Cwb climate subclassification is about three times that of Dwc in April, which implies that the intensity of control efforts in different sub-regions may differ three times under the same imported risk. However, BSk and BWk, the most widely distributed in northwest China, have smaller basic reproduction numbers than Cfa, distributed in southeast coastal areas. It indicates that northwest China's control intensity could be appropriately weaker than southeast China under the same prevention objectives.

Keywords: COVID-19; China's response; Köppen-Geiger climate classification; NPIs and vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig. 1
Intensity distribution of different control measures across 34 provinces of China at six control stages Among the different control measures, the most stringent control intensity is defined as 100, and if this control measure is not adopted, it is defined as 0. According to the color variations in the legend, the control intensity of four measures in different stages is distinguished.
Fig 2
Fig. 2
Some results of parameter estimation A Global sensitivity analysis of the parameters, which represent the different effects on the change of effective reproduction number. B Reproduction numbers calculated in different scenarios. Rt: Monthly average of instantaneous reproduction number calculated by a Bayesian latent variable approach ; RACT: Monthly average of the instantaneous reproduction number based on global data as shown in Method; RR.: Monthly average of the instantaneous reproduction number, subtracting imported cases estimated by international tourism data [46,49]; RR.I.: Adjustment of RR. by subtracting the effect of ICC; RR.P.: Adjustment of RR. by subtracting the effect of PIC; RR.V.: Monthly average of the instantaneous reproduction number, subtracting imported cases and population vaccinated . RR.I.P.: Adjustment of RR. by subtracting the effects of ICC and PIC; RSIM: Adjustment of RR.V. by subtracting the effects of ICC and PIC. C Some estimated results around 189 countries or regions selected in this study DM: Average of reporting delay days between infection and confirmation; DS: Standard deviation of reporting delay days; DD: Average duration days of COVID-19 infection; DDC: Average recovery days from confirmation.
Fig 3
Fig. 3
China map of the Köppen–Geiger climate classification. The depth of color distinguishes the value of RSIM in the same main climate; the darker the color, the larger the RSIM.
Fig 4
Fig. 4
Heterogeneity of Köppen–Geiger climate classifications A Distribution of RSIM and RACT based on Köppen–Geiger climate classifications B Monthly distribution of RSIM based on Köppen–Geiger climate classifications C China city-level map of RSIM based on Köppen–Geiger climate classifications in different months.
Fig 5
Fig. 5
Heterogeneity of temperature and relative humidity A Distribution of RSIM based on temperature. Frequency of temperature, mean of 1/1000 relative humidity, mean of population density, and mean of RSIM spacing between 1℃ of temperature. B Distribution of RSIM based on relative humidity. Frequency of relative humidity, mean of 1/1000 temperature, mean of precipitation, mean of 1/1000 wind speed, and mean of RSIM spacing between 1% of relative humidity.

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