The long-term trend of Parkinson's disease incidence and mortality in China and a Bayesian projection from 2020 to 2030
- PMID: 36185486
- PMCID: PMC9520003
- DOI: 10.3389/fnagi.2022.973310
The long-term trend of Parkinson's disease incidence and mortality in China and a Bayesian projection from 2020 to 2030
Abstract
Background: Parkinson's disease is a disabling degenerative disease of the central nervous system that occurs mainly in elderly people. The changes in the incidence and mortality of Parkinson's disease at the national level in China over the past three decades have not been fully explored. Methods: Research data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The trends of crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates by gender of Parkinson's disease in China were analyzed with the age-period-cohort model and the Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality of Parkinson's disease were estimated. The gender- and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of Parkinson's disease from 2020 to 2030 were projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model with integrated nested Laplace approximations. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the annual percentage change of the age-standardized incidence rate was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.7%-0.8%) for males and 0.2% (95% CI, 0.2-0.2%) for females. And the age-standardized mortality rate for males was 2.9% (95% CI: 2.6%-3.2%) and 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5%-2.1%) for females. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested that the risk and burden of Parkinson's disease continued to increase for the last several decades. Projection analysis suggested that the overall Parkinson's disease incidence will continue to increase for the next decades. It was projected that China would have 4.787 million Parkinson's patients by the year 2030, however, the mortality of Parkinson's disease for both genders in China may keep decreasing. Conclusion: Though the mortality risk may decrease, Parkinson's disease continues to become more common for both genders in China, especially in the senior-aged population. The burden associated with Parkinson's disease would continue to grow. Urgent interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of Parkinson's disease in China.
Keywords: China; Parkinson’s disease; age-period-cohort; mortality and incidence; projection analysis.
Copyright © 2022 Chen, Chen, Si, Luo, Hu, Zhang and Ma.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Figures
Similar articles
-
Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.Cancer Med. 2023 Aug;12(15):16517-16530. doi: 10.1002/cam4.6239. Epub 2023 Jun 12. Cancer Med. 2023. PMID: 37306154 Free PMC article.
-
Secular Trends in the Incidence of and Mortality Due to Alzheimer's Disease and Other Forms of Dementia in China From 1990 to 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Study and Joinpoint Analysis.Front Aging Neurosci. 2021 Sep 3;13:709156. doi: 10.3389/fnagi.2021.709156. eCollection 2021. Front Aging Neurosci. 2021. PMID: 34539380 Free PMC article.
-
Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.BMC Pulm Med. 2021 Nov 16;21(1):375. doi: 10.1186/s12890-021-01740-y. BMC Pulm Med. 2021. PMID: 34784911 Free PMC article.
-
The comparative burden of brain and central nervous system cancers from 1990 to 2019 between China and the United States and predicting the future burden.Front Public Health. 2022 Oct 21;10:1018836. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1018836. eCollection 2022. Front Public Health. 2022. PMID: 36339132 Free PMC article.
-
Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Prediction of Mortality of Type 2 Diabetic Kidney Disease in China: A Modeling Study.Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2021 Oct 29;12:767263. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2021.767263. eCollection 2021. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2021. PMID: 34777260 Free PMC article.
Cited by
-
Effective analysis of job satisfaction among medical staff in Chinese public hospitals: a random forest model.Front Public Health. 2024 Apr 18;12:1357709. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1357709. eCollection 2024. Front Public Health. 2024. PMID: 38699429 Free PMC article.
-
Cell membrane-based nanomaterials for theranostics of central nervous system diseases.J Nanobiotechnology. 2023 Aug 19;21(1):276. doi: 10.1186/s12951-023-02004-z. J Nanobiotechnology. 2023. PMID: 37596631 Free PMC article. Review.
-
Trends in parkinson's disease mortality in China from 2004 to 2021: a joinpoint analysis.BMC Public Health. 2024 Apr 19;24(1):1091. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-18532-8. BMC Public Health. 2024. PMID: 38641581 Free PMC article.
-
Real-world Chinese herbal medicine for Parkinson's disease: a hospital-based retrospective analysis of electronic medical records.Front Aging Neurosci. 2024 May 2;16:1362948. doi: 10.3389/fnagi.2024.1362948. eCollection 2024. Front Aging Neurosci. 2024. PMID: 38756536 Free PMC article.
-
Unlocking the Potential: Semaglutide's Impact on Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Disease in Animal Models.Curr Issues Mol Biol. 2024 Jun 13;46(6):5929-5949. doi: 10.3390/cimb46060354. Curr Issues Mol Biol. 2024. PMID: 38921025 Free PMC article. Review.
References
-
- Beaton D., McLaughlin P. M., Orange J. B., Munoz D. P., Mandzia J., Abrahao A., et al. . (2022). Caregiving concerns and clinical characteristics across neurodegenerative and cerebrovascular disorders in the Ontario neurodegenerative disease research initiative. Int. J. Geriatr. Psychiatry 37, 1–19. 10.1002/gps.5727 - DOI - PubMed
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Miscellaneous