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. 2022 Aug 8;7(8):172.
doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed7080172.

Optimal Validated Multi-Factorial Climate Change Risk Assessment for Adaptation Planning and Evaluation of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia

Lia Faridah  1   2   3   4 , Djoko Santoso Abi Suroso  5 , Muhammad Suhardjono Fitriyanto  5 , Clarisa Dity Andari  1 , Isnan Fauzi  5 , Yonatan Kurniawan  5 , Kozo Watanabe  6
Affiliations

Optimal Validated Multi-Factorial Climate Change Risk Assessment for Adaptation Planning and Evaluation of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia

Lia Faridah et al. Trop Med Infect Dis. .

Abstract

(1) Background: This paper will present an elaboration of the risk assessment methodology by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ), Eurac Research and United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) for the assessment of dengue. (2) Methods: We validate the risk assessment model by best-fitting it with the number of dengue cases per province using the least-square fitting method. Seven out of thirty-four provinces in Indonesia were chosen (North Sumatra, Jakarta Capital, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali and East Kalimantan). (3) Results: A risk assessment based on the number of dengue cases showed an increased risk in 2010, 2015 and 2016 in which the effects of El Nino and La Nina extreme climates occurred. North Sumatra, Bali, and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component, in line with their risk analysis that tends to be lower than the other provinces in 2010, 2015 and 2016 when El Nino and La Nina occurred. (4) Conclusion: Based on data from the last ten years, in Jakarta Capital, Central Java, East Java and East Kalimantan, dengue risks were mainly influenced by the climatic hazard component while North Sumatra, Bali and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component.

Keywords: adaptive capacity; dengue risk assessment; least-square fitting; risk sensitivity; validation optimization.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure A1
Figure A1
Difference between the risk assessment results and the data on the dengue number of cases in seven provinces of Indonesia.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Results of climate change impact chain of the dengue number of cases.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Map of the selected study areas based on the average number of dengue cases in various provinces.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Risk and number of dengue cases comparison: (A) A comparison of the annual risk and number of dengue cases in the Province of the Jakarta Capital. (B) The comparison between the average risk and the average number of dengue cases in the seven analyzed provinces. Abbreviations: NS = North Sumatra, JC = Jakarta Capital, WJ = West Java, CJ = Central Java, EJ = East Java, BI = Bali, EK = East Kalimantan. (Graphs of the comparison of annual risk and number of dengue cases in other provinces can be seen in Appendix D, Figure A1).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Dengue risk components of seven provinces in Indonesia: (A) North Sumatra Province, (B) East Kalimantan Province, (C) Bali Province, (D) Jakarta Capital Province, (E) West Java Province, (F) Central Java Province, (G) East Java Province.
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