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. 2023 Apr;43(4):677-685.
doi: 10.1111/risa.13982. Epub 2022 Jun 23.

Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan

Dominika A Kalkowska  1 , Kamran Badizadegan  1 , Kimberly M Thompson  1
Affiliations

Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan

Dominika A Kalkowska et al. Risk Anal. 2023 Apr.

Abstract

Since 2013, wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission occurred only for type 1 (WPV1). Following several years of increasing reported incidence (2017-2019) and programmatic disruptions caused by COVID-19 (early 2020), Pakistan and Afghanistan performed a large number of supplementary immunization activities (late 2020-2021). This increased intensity of immunization, following widespread transmission, substantially decreased WPV1 cases and positive environmental samples during 2021. Modeling the potential for undetected circulation of WPV1 after apparent interruption can support regional and global decisions about certification of the eradication of indigenous WPV1 transmission. We apply a stochastic model to estimate the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of time since the last reported case and/or positive environmental sample. Exploration of different assumptions about surveillance quality suggests a range for CNC for WPV1 as a function of time since the last positive surveillance signal, and supports the potential use of a time with no evidence of transmission of less than 3 years as sufficient to assume die out in the context of good acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. We show high expected CNC based on AFP surveillance data alone, even with imperfect surveillance and some use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine masking the ability of AFP surveillance to detect transmission. Ensuring high quality AFP and environmental surveillance may substantially shorten the time required to reach high CNC. The time required for high CNC depends on whether immunization activities maintain high population immunity and the quality of surveillance data.

Keywords: Afghanistan; Pakistan; eradication; infection transmission modeling; polio; vaccination.

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Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:
Confidence about no circulation in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of the detected-event-free period (DEFP) assuming perfect AFP surveillance, and reference lines provided to indicate 95% and 99% confidence for WPV1 for Scenario 1 Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; DEFP, detected-event-free period; WPV1, serotype 1 wild poliovirus
Figure 2:
Figure 2:
Confidence about no circulation in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of the detected-event-free period (DEFP) assuming different estimates of less than perfect AFP surveillance, with perfect AFP surveillance without ES, and reference lines provided to indicate 95% and 99% confidence for WPV1 for Scenario 1 Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; DEFP, detected-event-free period; ES, environmental surveillance, WPV1, serotype 1 wild poliovirus
Figure 3:
Figure 3:
Confidence about no circulation in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of the detected-event-free period (DEFP) assuming different ES approaches compared to perfect AFP surveillance without ES, and reference lines provided to indicate 95% and 99% confidence for WPV1 for Scenario 1 Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; DEFP, detected-event-free period; ES, environmental surveillance; GS, general population sites distribution; IP, isolation-rate based prevalence; NS, national sites distribution; PP, proportional prevalence; SS, site-specific; SW, system-wide; US, undervaccinated subpopulation sites distribution, WPV1, serotype 1 wild poliovirus
Figure 4:
Figure 4:
Confidence about no circulation in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of the detected-event-free period (DEFP) assuming a range of less than perfect AFP surveillance and a range of ES, with perfect AFP surveillance without ES, and reference lines provided to indicate 95% and 99% confidence for WPV1 for Scenario 1 Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; DEFP, detected-event-free period; ES, environmental surveillance, WPV1, serotype 1 wild poliovirus
Figure 5:
Figure 5:
Confidence about no circulation in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of the detected-event-free period (DEFP) assuming a range of less than perfect AFP surveillance and a range of ES, with perfect AFP surveillance without ES, and reference lines provided to indicate 95% and 99% confidence for WPV1 for Scenario 2 Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; DEFP, detected-event-free period; ES, environmental surveillance, WPV1, serotype 1 wild poliovirus
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