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. 2022 Feb 6;18(2):535-539.
doi: 10.5114/aoms/146262. eCollection 2022.

Early identification of high-risk patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis progression to chronic pancreatitis

Heqing Tao  1 , Jinhui Xu  2 , Nan Li  3 , Hong Chang  1 , Liping Duan  1
Affiliations

Early identification of high-risk patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis progression to chronic pancreatitis

Heqing Tao et al. Arch Med Sci. .

Abstract

Introduction: The aim of the study was to develop a simple tool for early identification of high-risk patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) progression to chronic pancreatitis (CP) in primary hospitals or outpatient clinics.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 265 patients with RAP.

Results: A nomogram for RAP progression to CP was developed and the C-index of the model was 0.817 (95% CI: 0.72-0.91). Patients were divided into two risk groups according to the nomogram prediction scores and a higher proportion of patients in the high-risk group progressed to CP.

Conclusions: The nomogram provided a means of predicting which patients were at high risk of progression to CP.

Keywords: chronic pancreatitis; nomogram; recurrent acute pancreatitis; risk factor.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
A – Nomogram for recurrent acute pancreatitis progression to chronic pancreatitis. B – Effectiveness of predictive performance of the nomogram in estimating the risk of CP. (a) 1-year incidence in the RAP cohort; (b) 3-year incidence in the RAP cohort; (c) 5-year incidence in the RAP cohort. The validity of the nomogram showed that the predictive value of progression to CP at 3 and 5 years is better than that at 1 year. This is consistent with our knowledge, as RAP often takes some time to progress to CP. C – Rate of progression to CP after a first attack of acute pancreatitis according to the hazard stratification (Kaplan-Meier curve and one minus survival)
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