Background: The fracture risk assessment tool has been widely used to stratify the 10-year fracture risk to guide therapy. Using the actual fracture data of a 10-year longitudinal cohort of older patients with systemic lupus erythematosus, we reported an underestimation of the tool in predicting major symptomatic osteoporotic fractures. Treatment of osteoporosis in systemic lupus erythematosus should not be based on fracture risk estimation alone. Relevant time-dependent risk factors should be taken into account for an individualized decision.

Objective: To compare the observed fracture incidence in a 10-year longitudinal cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with the fracture risk prediction from the fracture risk assessment (FRAX) tool.

Methods: Adult patients (⩾40 years) with SLE who had a first DEXA scan performed in 2005-2009 were studied. The 10-year rates of major osteoporotic and hip fractures were estimated by FRAX using clinical data at DEXA with adjustment for prednisolone dosage. The actual incidence of clinical fractures at 10 years was compared with the estimated rates. Factors associated with new fractures were studied by logistic regression.

Results: A total of 229 SLE patients were studied (age: 50.2 ± 6.6 years, 93% women). Glucocorticoid was used in 148 (65%) patients at baseline (mean dose: 7.3 ± 6.9 mg/day; 34% ⩾ 7.5 mg/day). Osteoporosis (bone mineral density T score ⩽ -2.5) at the hip, femoral neck, or spine was present in 61 (27%) patients. The estimated 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and hip fractures by FRAX was 3.4 ± 4.5% and 0.95 ± 2.3%, respectively. After 10 years, three patients developed hip fracture, 6 patients had limb fractures and 20 patients had symptomatic vertebral fractures (major osteoporotic fracture 12.7%, hip fracture 1.3%). The actual major osteoporotic fracture rate was significantly higher than the FRAX estimation (12.7% vs 3.4%; p < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that osteoporosis (odds ratio (OR): 4.07 [1.51-10.9]), previous fragility fracture (OR: 3.18 [1.02-9.90]), and a parental history of fracture (OR: 4.44 [1.16-17.0]) were independently associated with new clinical fractures at 10 years.

Conclusion: The FRAX tool underestimates the major clinical fracture risk at 10 years in patients with SLE.