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. 2021 Dec 23;43(12):1228-1234.
doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112152-20210329-00273.

[An analysis of mortality trends for upper gastrointestinal neoplasms in Qidong, 1972-2016]

[Article in Chinese]
Y S Chen  1 , J Wang  1 , L L Ding  1 , Y H Zhang  1 , Y Y Xu  1 , J G Chen  1 , J Zhu  1
Affiliations

[An analysis of mortality trends for upper gastrointestinal neoplasms in Qidong, 1972-2016]

[Article in Chinese]
Y S Chen et al. Zhonghua Zhong Liu Za Zhi. .

Abstract
in English, Chinese

Objective: To describe the trend of upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality in Qidong between 1972 and 2016, and to provide guidelines for prevention and control measures and strategies. Methods: The upper gastrointestinal data was collected in Qidong cancer registration from 1972 to 2016. Crude mortality rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (CASR), world age-standardized rate (WASR), truncated rate (35-64 years old), cumulative rate (0-74 years old) and cumulative risk were calculated. Annual percent change (APC) was calculated by Joinpoint software. Age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the influence of age, period and birth cohort on the changes in the mortality trend of upper gastrointestinal cancer patients. Results: From 1972 to 2016, there were 20 658 deaths of upper gastrointestinal cancer in Qidong, accounting for 20.89% of all cancer deaths. The CR, CASR, WASR, truncated rate (35-64 years old), cumulative rate (0-74 years old) and cumulative risk were 40.85/100 000, 27.96/100 000, 27.69/100 000, 36.01/100 000, 3.30% and 3.25%, respectively. There were 13 429 male deaths, the CR, CASR, and the WASR were 53.81/100 000, 37.62/100 000, and 39.93/100 000; the female deaths were 7 229, and the CR, CASR, and WASR were 28.23/100 000, 18.87/100 000, 17.25/100 000, respectively. The APCs of the 45-year-old, 55-year-old and 65-year-old age groups were -2.94% (95% CI: -3.32%, -2.56%), -2.94% (95% CI: -3.22%, -2.66%) and -2.04% (95% CI: -2.39%, -1.69%), with significant difference (P<0.05), while without significance of 75-year-old group (P>0.05). From 1972 to 2016, the APCs of CR, CASR, and WASR in the gastrointestinal cancer were 0.65% (95%CI: 0.43%, 0.87%), -2.01% (95%CI: -2.24%, -1.77%) and -2.05% (95%CI: -2.28%, -1.81%). The age-period-cohort model showed that the mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer was increased with age (P<0.05). Conclusions: The crude mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer increases slightly in Qidong, while the CASR and WASR decrease significantly. However, with aged tendency of population, the early diagnosis and treatment of upper gastrointestinal cancer is still needed to be paid attention.

目的： 分析江苏省启东市1972—2016年上消化道癌死亡趋势，为制定上消化道癌预防控制措施与策略提供依据。 方法： 根据启东市1972—2016年上消化道癌死亡登记数据和历年人口资料，计算粗死亡率、中国人口标化死亡率(中标率)、世界人口标化死亡率(世标率)、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率、累积风险，应用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件分析上消化道癌死亡率的年度变化百分比(APC)，利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对上消化道癌患者死亡趋势的影响。 结果： 1972—2016年启东市上消化道癌死亡20 658例，占全部恶性肿瘤死亡的20.89%，粗死亡率为40.85/10万，中标率为27.96/10万，世标率为27.69/10万。35~64岁截缩率为36.01/10万，0~74岁累积率为3.30%，累积风险为3.25%。男性死亡13 429例，粗死亡率、中标率、世标率分别为53.81/10万、37.62/10万、39.93/10万；女性死亡7 229例，粗死亡率、中标率、世标率分别为28.23/10万、18.87/10万、17.25/10万。45~岁、55~岁、65~岁年龄组死亡率的年均下降幅度均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)，APC分别为-2.94%(95% CI：-3.32%~-2.56%)、-2.94%(95% CI：-3.22%~-2.66%)、-2.04%(95% CI：-2.39%~-1.69%)，75~年龄组P>0.05。1972—2016年上消化道癌粗死亡率、中标率、世标率的APC分别为0.65%(95% CI：0.43%~0.87%)、-2.01%(95% CI：-2.24%~-1.77%)、-2.05%(95% CI：-2.28%~-1.81%)。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示，上消化道癌的死亡风险随年龄增长而升高，越晚出生的人死亡风险越小(均P<0.05)。 结论： 启东上消化道癌的粗死亡率呈上升趋势，中标率、世标率呈下降趋势，随着人口老龄化的加重，上消化道癌的早诊早治仍需高度重视。.

Keywords: Gastrointestinal neoplasms; Mortality; Qidong; Trend.

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