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. 2021 Sep;28(35):48459-48470.
doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14038-7. Epub 2021 Apr 28.

Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy

Ambreen Khursheed  1 , Faisal Mustafa  2   3 , Ayesha Akhtar  2   3
Affiliations

Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy

Ambreen Khursheed et al. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep.

Abstract

The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions; however, the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 death counts remains unexplored. By investigating the impact of meteorological factors (absolute humidity, relative humidity, and temperature), this study will contribute both theoretically and practically to the concerned domain of pandemic management to be better prepared to control the spread of the disease. For this study, data is collected from 23 February to 31 March 2020 for Milan, Northern Italy, one of the badly hit regions by COVID-19. The generalized additive model (GAM) is applied, and a nonlinear relationship is examined with penalized spline methods. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for the verification of model results. The results reveal that temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have a significant but negative relationship with the COVID-19 mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that cool and dry environmental conditions promote virus transmission, leading to an increase in COVID-19 death counts. The results may facilitate health care policymakers in developing and implementing effective control measures in a timely and efficient way.

Keywords: Air quality; COVID-19; Generalized additive model; Humidity; Temperature.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Relationship between COVID-19 death cases and temperature, relative humidity, and meteorological factors
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Graph between absolute humidity and death cases
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Graph between relative humidity and death cases
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Graph between temperature and death cases
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Percentage changes in COVID-19 death cases with meteorological factor levels at different lag days
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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