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. 2021 Jun 14;72(Suppl 3):S129-S133.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciab188.

What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?

Amanda Minter  1 , Lorenzo Pellis  2   3 , Graham F Medley  4 , T Déirdre Hollingsworth  1
Affiliations

What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?

Amanda Minter et al. Clin Infect Dis. .

Abstract

As programs move closer toward the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims-for example, minimizing morbidity and minimizing costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move toward 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.

Keywords: elimination; neglected tropical diseases; sustainable control.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Conceptual framework describing the components of developing dynamic models and the respective challenges. The model is both informed by data and must predict data by accounting for diagnostic uncertainty. Model predictions and costs will inform the multicriteria evaluation of sustainable control programs.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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