Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Review
. 2021 Dec;16(1):1871798.
doi: 10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798.

COVID-19 epidemic in Libya

Affiliations
Review

COVID-19 epidemic in Libya

Amin Bredan et al. Libyan J Med. 2021 Dec.

Abstract

The first case of COVID-19 was identified in Libya on 24/3/2020, and about 2 months later, the number of reported COVID-19 cases started to increase notably. The outbreak was first prominent in the southern region (Sabha) and then spread to the western and eastern parts of Libya. By 24/12/2020, the reported total number of deaths from COVID-19 reached 1415. There seems to be no published data on the size of the epidemic in Libya. Here, we estimated the number of Libyans exposed to COVID-19 by using a COVID-19 mortality adjusted mathematical model for the spread of infectious diseases. We estimated that 14-20% of the Libyan population have been exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the risk of spread of COVID-19 infections during the coming months is high, and a considerable number of Libyans, particularly the elderly and people with chronic diseases, should be protected against COVID-19 infection. This is particularly urgent in the light of unofficial reports that the relevant healthcare facilities are under extreme stress.

Keywords: COVID-19; Libya; epidemic spread; modeling.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
The estimated number of active COVID-19 cases over time based on two scenarios
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths over time based on two scenarios

Similar articles

Cited by

References

    1. WorldBank . Population profile of Libya. World Bank Group, Washington DC; 2020. Available from https://data.worldbank.org/country/libya
    1. Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM.. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. 2020;395(10225):689–3. Epub 2020/ 02/06. . - PMC - PubMed
    1. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(13):1199–1207. Epub 2020/ 01/30. . - PMC - PubMed
    1. ECDC . Epidemiology of COVID-19. European centre for disease prevention and control; 2020; Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence.
    1. Folkhälsomyndigheten . The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in Stockholm – technical report, article 2009, 4-2. Public Health Agency of Sweden, Solna, Sweden; 2020. Available from https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarki...

Grants and funding

No funding was received for this work.

LinkOut - more resources