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Review
. 2020 Jul;5(7):e003098.
doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003098.

The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

Wim Van Damme  1 , Ritwik Dahake  2 , Alexandre Delamou  3 , Brecht Ingelbeen  4 , Edwin Wouters  5   6 , Guido Vanham  7   8 , Remco van de Pas  4 , Jean-Paul Dossou  4   9 , Por Ir  10 , Seye Abimbola  11   12 , Stefaan Van der Borght  13 , Devadasan Narayanan  14 , Gerald Bloom  15 , Ian Van Engelgem  16 , Mohamed Ali Ag Ahmed  17 , Joël Arthur Kiendrébéogo  4   18   19 , Kristien Verdonck  4 , Vincent De Brouwere  4 , Kéfilath Bello  9 , Helmut Kloos  20 , Peter Aaby  21 , Andreas Kalk  22 , Sameh Al-Awlaqi  23 , N S Prashanth  24 , Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum  25 , Placide Mbala  25 , Steve Ahuka-Mundeke  25 , Yibeltal Assefa  26
Affiliations
Review

The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

Wim Van Damme et al. BMJ Glob Health. 2020 Jul.

Abstract

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability-by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.

Keywords: public health.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

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