Objective: To examine the impact of demographic, clinical, and genetic factors as well as herniated discs on 5-year development of disc degeneration in the lumbar spine, and to investigate associations between changes in lumbar degenerative findings and pain.

Materials and methods: In 144 patients with lumbar radicular pain or low back pain, we scored disc degeneration, herniated discs, and high-intensity zones in the posterior annulus fibrosus on lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and 5-year follow-up. Genotyping (TaqMan assay) was performed for genes encoding vitamin D receptor (VDR), collagen XIα (COL11A), matrix metalloproteinase 1/9 (MMP1/MMP9), and interleukin 1α/1RN (IL-1α/IL-1RN). Associations were analyzed using multivariate linear regression adjusted for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, and baseline scores for degenerated discs and herniated discs (when analyzing impact of baseline factors) or for pain (when analyzing associations with pain).

Results: Progression of disc degeneration over 5 years was significantly (p < 0.001) related to higher age and less disc degeneration at baseline, but not to sex, smoking, body mass index, herniated discs, or variants in the studied genes. No associations were identified between changes in disc degeneration or high-intensity zones and pain at 5-year follow-up. However, increased number of herniated discs over 5 years was associated with pain at rest (p = 0.019).

Conclusions: Age and disc degeneration at baseline, rather than genetic factors, influenced the 5-year development of disc degeneration in patients with lumbar radicular pain or low back pain. Development of herniated discs was related to pain at rest.