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. 2018 Jan 15;9(1):206.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2.

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift

Jiankai Zhang  1 , Wenshou Tian  2 , Fei Xie  3 , Martyn P Chipperfield  4 , Wuhu Feng  4   5 , Seok-Woo Son  6 , N Luke Abraham  7   8 , Alexander T Archibald  7   8 , Slimane Bekki  9 , Neal Butchart  10 , Makoto Deushi  11 , Sandip Dhomse  4 , Yuanyuan Han  1 , Patrick Jöckel  12 , Douglas Kinnison  13 , Ole Kirner  14 , Martine Michou  15 , Olaf Morgenstern  16 , Fiona M O'Connor  10 , Giovanni Pitari  17 , David A Plummer  18 , Laura E Revell  19   20 , Eugene Rozanov  19   21 , Daniele Visioni  17   22 , Wuke Wang  23 , Guang Zeng  16
Affiliations

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift

Jiankai Zhang et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
EOF of total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Spatial patterns of EOF1, EOF2 and EOF3 of February mean total column ozone (TCO) over 45–90°N derived from a, c, e MSR2 data and b, d, f SLIMCAT full chemistry simulation for the period 1980–2012. The percentage of explained variance is shown in the top right of each plot. The minimum latitude of the polar stereographic projections is 45°N. The values in 1987, 2006 and 2009 are not included for EOF analysis because the polar vortex broke up and its shape was distorted during February in these years (Methods)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Eurasia-North America dipole mode of total column ozone and clear-sky ultraviolet radiation. a–c Spatial patterns of Eurasia-North America dipole (ENAD) mode (EOF2 + EOF3) and d–f time series of normalized ENAD index (principal component (PC)2 + PC3) (blue lines) of February mean total column ozone (TCO) over 45–90°N derived from a, d MSR2 data and b, e SLIMCAT full chemistry simulation, and c, f February mean clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index derived from MSR2 data. Time series of vortex shift index (see Methods section, red lines) are overlaid in d–f. The percentage of explained variance is shown in the top right of a–c, and the correlation coefficients between PC2 + PC3 and the vortex shift index are shown in the top right of captions in d–f. Linear trends of g MSR2 TCO, h SLIMCAT TCO and i MSR2 UV index regressed on the vortex shift index are also shown. The linear trends over the dotted regions are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level according to the Student’s t test. The minimum latitude of polar stereographic projections is 45°N. The values in 1987, 2006 and 2009 are not included because the polar vortex broke up and its shape was distorted during February in these years (Methods)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Potential vorticity and stratospheric ozone anomalies. Isentropic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in February during a 2001, b 2008 and c 2010 with respect to the climatology averaged over the isentropic layers from 430 to 600 K. Panels d–f are the same as a–c, but for dynamical ozone anomalies from SLIMCAT. Panels g–i are the same as a–c, but for heterogeneous chemical ozone anomalies from SLIMCAT. The green contour lines represent the edges of the polar vortex. The minimum latitude of polar stereographic projections is 45°N
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Potential vorticity anomalies versus chemical variables and temperature anomalies inside the polar vortex. Scatter plots of February potential vorticity (PV) anomalies against a dynamical ozone, b heterogeneous chemical ozone, c ClOx, d HCl/Cly ratio, e HNO3 and f temperature anomalies within the polar vortex over the Eurasian continent in February during the three vortex-shift winters (i.e., 2001, 2008 and 2010). The red line represents the regression fit
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Future changes in total column ozone and polar vortex. Spatial patterns of a EOF1 and c Eurasia-North America dipole (ENAD) mode, and time series of b principal component (PC) 1 (blue curved line) and d ENAD index (blue curved line) of multi-model mean total column ozone (TCO) in February, derived from the EMAC-L90MA, MRI-ESM1r1 and IPSL models, for the period 2010–2050. The red curved lines in b and d represent the polar vortex strength and shift index, respectively. The blue straight line in b represents the linear trend in PC1 during 2010–2050. The red and green straight lines in d denote linear trends in polar vortex shift index during 2010–2041 and 2041–2050, respectively. The correlation coefficient between PC1 and the vortex strength is shown in the top right of b, and correlation coefficient between ENAD index and the vortex shift index is shown in the top right of d
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