Lower-Income Countries That Face The Most Rapid Shift In Noncommunicable Disease Burden Are Also The Least Prepared
- PMID: 29137514
- PMCID: PMC7705176
- DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0708
Lower-Income Countries That Face The Most Rapid Shift In Noncommunicable Disease Burden Are Also The Least Prepared
Abstract
Demographic and epidemiological changes are shifting the disease burden from communicable to noncommunicable diseases in lower-income countries. Within a generation, the share of disease burden attributed to noncommunicable diseases in some poor countries will exceed 80 percent, rivaling that of rich countries, but this burden is likely to affect much younger people in poorer countries. The health systems of lower-income countries are unprepared for this change. We examined the shift to noncommunicable diseases and estimated preparedness for the shift by ranking 172 nations using a health system capacity index for noncommunicable disease. We project that the countries with the greatest increases in the share of disease burden attributable to noncommunicable disease over the next twenty-five years will also be the least prepared for the change, as they ranked low on our capacity index and are expected to have the smallest increases in national health spending. National governments and donors must invest more in preparing the health systems of lower-income countries for the dramatic shift to noncommunicable diseases and in reducing modifiable noncommunicable disease risks.
Keywords: Developing World < International/global health studies; Disease burden; Financing Health Care; Noncommunicable diseases.
Figures





Similar articles
-
Comparative financing analysis and political economy of noncommunicable diseases.J Med Econ. 2019 Aug;22(8):722-727. doi: 10.1080/13696998.2019.1600523. Epub 2019 Apr 8. J Med Econ. 2019. PMID: 30913928 Review.
-
Aging, non-communicable diseases, and old-age disability in low- and middle-income countries: a challenge for global health.Int J Public Health. 2018 Dec;63(9):1011-1012. doi: 10.1007/s00038-018-1137-z. Epub 2018 Jun 28. Int J Public Health. 2018. PMID: 29951746 No abstract available.
-
Economic Burden of Chronic Ill Health and Injuries for Households in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.In: Jamison DT, Gelband H, Horton S, Jha P, Laxminarayan R, Mock CN, Nugent R, editors. Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty. 3rd edition. Washington (DC): The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank; 2017 Nov 27. Chapter 6. In: Jamison DT, Gelband H, Horton S, Jha P, Laxminarayan R, Mock CN, Nugent R, editors. Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty. 3rd edition. Washington (DC): The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank; 2017 Nov 27. Chapter 6. PMID: 30212160 Free Books & Documents. Review.
-
Noncommunicable Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Strategic Approach to Develop a Global Implementation Research Workforce.Glob Heart. 2018 Jun;13(2):131-137. doi: 10.1016/j.gheart.2018.05.001. Epub 2018 Jun 30. Glob Heart. 2018. PMID: 29970340 Review.
-
Epidemiological transition and double burden of diseases in low-income countries: the case of Mozambique.Pan Afr Med J. 2020 Sep 14;37:49. doi: 10.11604/pamj.2020.37.49.23310. eCollection 2020. Pan Afr Med J. 2020. PMID: 33209176 Free PMC article.
Cited by
-
A machine learning approach to evaluate the state of hypertension care coverage: From 2016 STEPs survey in Iran.PLoS One. 2022 Sep 21;17(9):e0273560. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273560. eCollection 2022. PLoS One. 2022. PMID: 36129936 Free PMC article.
-
A Comparative Study on Health Risks, Lifestyle Behaviors, Health Perceptions, and Health Seeking Patterns between Older and Younger Filipinos in the Rural Areas.Philipp J Nurs. 2023 Jan-Jun;93(1):3-12. Philipp J Nurs. 2023. PMID: 38406642 Free PMC article.
-
Quantifying Sweet Taste Liker Phenotypes: Time for Some Consistency in the Classification Criteria.Nutrients. 2019 Jan 10;11(1):129. doi: 10.3390/nu11010129. Nutrients. 2019. PMID: 30634558 Free PMC article.
-
Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population: A population-based cohort study.PLoS Med. 2019 Feb 4;16(2):e1002741. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002741. eCollection 2019 Feb. PLoS Med. 2019. PMID: 30716101 Free PMC article.
-
Burden of disease among the world's poorest billion people: An expert-informed secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease estimates.PLoS One. 2021 Aug 16;16(8):e0253073. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253073. eCollection 2021. PLoS One. 2021. PMID: 34398896 Free PMC article.
Publication types
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Other Literature Sources
Medical