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. 2014 Mar;10(2):e40-6.
doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2014.01.004.

Deaths in the United States among persons with Alzheimer's disease (2010-2050)

Jennifer Weuve  1 , Liesi E Hebert  2 , Paul A Scherr  2 , Denis A Evans  2
Affiliations

Deaths in the United States among persons with Alzheimer's disease (2010-2050)

Jennifer Weuve et al. Alzheimers Dement. 2014 Mar.

Abstract

Background: Alzheimer's disease (AD) profoundly affects the end-of-life experience. Yet, counts of deaths attributable to AD understate this burden of AD in the population. Therefore, we estimated the annual number of deaths in the United States among older adults with AD from 2010 to 2050.

Methods: We calculated probabilities of AD incidence and mortality from a longitudinal population-based study of 10,802 participants. From this population, 1913 previously disease-free individuals, selected via stratified random sampling, underwent 2577 detailed clinical evaluations. Over the course of follow-up, 990 participants died. We computed age-, sex-, race-, and education-specific AD incidences and education-adjusted AD mortality proportions specific to age, sex, and race group. We then combined these probabilities with US-wide census, education, and mortality data.

Results: In 2010, approximately 600,000 deaths occurred among individuals aged 65 years or older with AD, comprising 32% of all older adult deaths. By 2050, this number is projected to be 1.6 million, 43% of all older adult deaths.

Conclusion: Individuals with AD comprise a substantial number of older adult deaths in the United States, a number expected to rise considerably in coming decades.

Keywords: Aged; Alzheimer's disease; Censuses; Dementia; Epidemiology; Forecasting; Longitudinal studies; Mortality; Population surveillance; United States.

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Conflict of interest statement

Authors’ potential conflicts of interest

Below are each author’s financial relationships that might lead to a perceived conflict of interest.

J. Weuve is a consultant for the Alzheimer’s Association and the AlzRisk Project (www.alzrisk.org). She is also funded by Alzheimer’s Association grant NIRG-12-242395 and NIH grants R21ES019712 and R21ES020404.

L. E. Hebert is funded by NIH grants NR010211, AG303544, AG011101, AG036650, and AG009966.

P. A. Scherr reports no disclosures.

D. A. Evans is funded by NIH grants AG11101, AG036650, AG09966, AG030146, AG10161, AG021972, ES10902, NR009543, HL084209, and AG12505l.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Deaths among older adults (ages 65 and older) in the US who have Alzheimer’s disease dementia (AD), number and percentage of all deaths (2010 to 2050). (Weuve J et al.)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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